Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-09-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 132073 15519 129 323 26 0 0 0
OW 0 1052 155 1021 150 3 0 0
VODI 0 159 67 2377 2078 56 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 837 6035 1429 122 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 2299 8845 2564 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 4874 4439 388
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 132089 15736 90 231 7 0 0 0
OW 0 1355 168 896 50 5 0 0
VODI 0 340 97 2910 1432 36 0 0
ODI 0 17 2 937 5603 1382 131 0
CDI 0 3 1 26 2446 9885 1503 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 62 5921 3635 52
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134228 14930 60 103 22 0 0 0
OW 0 1064 169 758 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 160 80 3294 624 2 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 503 5642 473 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 1078 13792 1663 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3783 4534 50
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 135320 13656 74 208 39 0 0 0
OW 0 1035 147 905 210 0 0 0
VODI 0 200 85 2383 1395 149 0 0
ODI 0 13 2 452 4347 1032 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1088 11598 3114 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 79 5900 3566 5
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 135320 13856 115 446 114 0 0 0
OW 0 780 105 738 272 3 0 0
VODI 0 251 85 2016 1504 173 0 0
ODI 0 17 3 748 3978 1169 90 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1211 11291 2989 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 79 6043 3646 5

Date: 2019-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 135044 13664 77 338 41 0 0 0
OW 0 1236 157 900 204 0 0 0
VODI 0 256 78 1919 1972 71 0 0
ODI 0 14 1 312 3392 1676 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 747 10638 2708 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7152 4422 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 135044 13980 122 587 96 0 0 0
OW 0 883 115 710 283 0 0 0
VODI 0 289 74 1816 1714 114 0 0
ODI 0 18 2 350 3378 1733 69 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 884 10433 2535 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 7257 4553 0

Date: 2019-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 135323 13899 81 206 29 0 0 0
OW 0 976 162 713 62 0 0 0
VODI 0 96 56 2429 832 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 150 4966 235 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 761 12461 1099 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4685 7437 387
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 135323 13690 106 488 79 0 0 0
OW 0 934 114 729 265 0 0 0
VODI 0 346 77 1789 1756 24 0 0
ODI 0 2 4 489 3446 1077 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1104 9521 1939 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6759 6591 387

Date: 2019-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 135073 14435 72 162 32 0 0 0
OW 0 1133 146 668 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 204 77 2337 765 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 500 3974 376 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 1468 7872 3319 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 3773 9138 1435
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 135073 14222 96 370 65 0 0 0
OW 0 1019 92 753 170 0 0 0
VODI 0 493 93 1923 1397 71 0 0
ODI 0 42 16 594 3014 998 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 54 1636 6250 2736 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 4702 9721 1435

Date: 2019-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 136006 13341 62 159 43 0 0 0
OW 0 1462 113 513 83 2 0 0
VODI 0 499 122 2099 652 40 0 0
ODI 0 53 18 661 3633 303 8 0
CDI 0 0 1 69 1865 6026 2697 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3162 12669 687
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 136006 13276 79 289 65 0 0 0
OW 0 1238 92 576 116 16 0 0
VODI 0 706 112 1812 1370 63 0 0
ODI 0 131 30 735 2771 946 8 0
CDI 0 4 3 89 1919 4667 2235 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 35 3841 13131 687


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