Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-08-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21081 5630 61 166 2 0 0 0
OW 0 357 61 479 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 25 976 538 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 306 2815 191 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1247 5787 905 188
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1506 2830 616
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21484 5193 40 74 0 0 0 0
OW 0 471 55 441 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 119 39 1002 507 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 486 2421 179 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 2143 4733 858 266
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2989 1920 406
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21138 5786 48 95 1 0 0 0
OW 0 357 78 433 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 11 1388 347 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 304 3566 342 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1188 5039 176 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2697 2819 3
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21108 5607 61 152 0 0 0 0
OW 0 394 59 455 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 51 25 1091 532 38 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 581 2643 827 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 1720 4352 354 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 3191 2366 180
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21108 5593 68 172 0 0 0 0
OW 0 346 46 437 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 113 31 999 554 46 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 671 2486 651 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 1855 4376 343 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 3335 2376 180

Date: 2019-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20723 5815 56 180 0 0 0 0
OW 0 507 60 441 34 9 0 0
VODI 0 93 30 1082 429 45 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 683 2400 723 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 1939 4432 437 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 50 3431 1966 266
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20723 5876 74 207 1 0 0 0
OW 0 367 32 445 26 9 0 0
VODI 0 173 40 935 440 63 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 790 2217 548 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 2108 4379 405 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 60 3641 1990 266

Date: 2019-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21612 5385 39 66 30 0 0 0
OW 0 460 86 354 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 89 22 1276 323 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 118 2425 268 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 618 8102 296 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2492 1788 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21612 5164 54 138 32 0 0 0
OW 0 488 45 357 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 274 46 876 442 21 2 0
ODI 0 11 2 419 1827 942 8 0
CDI 0 3 0 24 1040 5614 379 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 4285 1697 0

Date: 2019-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21843 5432 38 85 25 0 0 0
OW 0 421 71 495 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 85 23 876 706 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 91 1695 574 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 358 6389 2086 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 46 2563 1901 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21843 5047 33 153 24 0 0 0
OW 0 538 44 380 76 0 0 0
VODI 0 325 48 711 529 57 0 0
ODI 0 28 6 259 1478 793 114 0
CDI 0 3 1 44 713 4494 1905 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 4182 1976 0

Date: 2019-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21825 5398 48 151 45 0 0 0
OW 0 327 55 494 227 5 0 0
VODI 0 57 23 553 716 470 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 76 942 1101 80 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 72 4611 3420 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3059 2100 4
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21825 5150 50 185 57 0 0 0
OW 0 437 35 313 227 37 0 0
VODI 0 181 39 601 656 281 6 0
ODI 0 14 2 156 822 1207 195 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 240 3548 3077 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4173 2322 4


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