Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-08-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131702 15524 152 444 15 0 0 0
OW 2 856 139 1174 119 0 0 0
VODI 0 143 61 2685 1533 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 569 7000 442 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3485 9305 1562 191
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2769 5611 1537
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130703 16372 95 282 13 0 0 0
OW 1 1215 178 1043 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 220 86 2954 1405 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 1075 6169 476 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 4518 8465 1772 266
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4381 4307 944
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131153 16464 121 274 32 0 0 0
OW 0 764 194 1073 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 21 2735 1791 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 358 7440 1260 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2074 9792 1417 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4497 5343 91
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 132927 14609 144 418 0 0 0 0
OW 0 877 163 1088 147 0 0 0
VODI 0 88 42 2270 2240 41 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 705 6059 1793 101 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 2284 9821 1317 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 5275 4358 242
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 132927 14608 157 499 1 0 0 0
OW 0 793 134 968 152 0 0 0
VODI 0 173 58 2148 2336 60 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 866 5753 1503 133 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 2485 9814 1232 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 5553 4411 242

Date: 2019-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131944 15720 106 306 1 0 0 0
OW 0 1248 173 954 65 9 0 0
VODI 0 294 64 2850 1539 47 0 0
ODI 0 13 1 883 5900 1290 199 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 2680 9038 2223 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 50 4173 4729 523
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131944 15848 141 409 1 0 0 0
OW 0 998 118 911 70 9 0 0
VODI 0 421 82 2588 1833 67 0 0
ODI 0 8 3 1076 5273 1056 222 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 2998 9010 2141 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 60 4415 4788 523

Date: 2019-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134138 14716 57 109 30 0 0 0
OW 0 1082 210 725 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 151 68 3464 637 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 1 296 6441 362 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1387 14567 555 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3858 4164 8
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134138 14067 89 251 32 0 0 0
OW 0 1246 131 718 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 601 104 2679 1409 21 2 0
ODI 0 37 11 913 4842 1464 8 0
CDI 0 5 1 34 2122 10943 699 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 6359 4012 8

Date: 2019-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134809 14316 70 127 26 0 0 0
OW 0 1072 159 856 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 199 77 2920 941 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 3 450 5125 688 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1066 13009 2191 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 51 4358 4458 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134807 13324 64 245 26 0 0 0
OW 2 1392 106 738 111 0 0 0
VODI 0 784 118 2486 1231 60 0 0
ODI 0 95 19 812 4316 1277 114 0
CDI 0 4 2 72 1493 9717 1921 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 84 7001 4622 0

Date: 2019-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 135052 13811 92 241 45 0 0 0
OW 0 1091 134 925 236 5 0 0
VODI 0 180 88 2313 1263 470 0 0
ODI 0 15 1 304 3695 1485 80 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 639 11076 3453 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6666 3675 4
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 135042 13025 78 246 57 0 0 0
OW 10 1319 104 686 244 37 0 0
VODI 0 674 113 2071 1469 295 6 0
ODI 0 79 20 742 3230 1884 195 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 875 8524 3110 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 8962 3897 4


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