Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-08-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19459 6276 53 140 7 0 0 0
OW 0 799 64 386 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 275 53 1135 584 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 171 2482 646 123 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 1388 5206 2428 68
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 658 3115 295
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19949 5835 44 153 3 0 0 0
OW 0 837 53 398 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 289 55 1081 622 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 219 2445 787 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 1317 5272 2341 111
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 668 3040 295
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21167 5472 36 130 2 0 0 0
OW 0 403 71 362 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 39 21 1066 412 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 126 3143 312 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 854 5788 582 261
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 794 3660 1132
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21350 5343 59 182 4 0 0 0
OW 0 330 60 465 29 1 0 0
VODI 0 64 19 894 582 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 200 2867 313 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1007 5760 768 476
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1475 2718 899
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21350 5418 71 183 10 0 0 0
OW 0 253 46 486 34 2 0 0
VODI 0 66 21 923 610 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 149 2766 333 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1069 5730 766 367
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1485 2720 1008

Date: 2019-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21179 5540 48 119 0 0 0 0
OW 0 373 51 503 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 73 25 975 565 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 326 2809 158 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 1800 5766 322 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3902 1304 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21179 5646 51 129 0 0 0 0
OW 0 274 47 493 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 26 1007 641 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 294 2586 161 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 1925 5748 308 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 3917 1318 0

Date: 2019-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21207 5682 32 71 0 0 0 0
OW 0 425 74 327 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 26 1486 291 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 145 3948 299 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 724 5677 74 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2028 3046 248
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21207 5536 36 123 0 0 0 0
OW 0 451 52 390 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 146 44 995 616 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 504 2047 255 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 2284 4726 1032 188
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3024 2086 60

Date: 2019-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21337 5502 47 116 2 0 0 0
OW 0 390 73 423 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 21 1281 395 27 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 475 3185 474 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 1568 4552 313 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2931 2683 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21337 5229 50 157 7 0 0 0
OW 0 475 45 422 49 1 0 0
VODI 0 214 44 971 707 47 6 0
ODI 0 8 2 640 1562 258 78 0
CDI 0 0 0 110 2815 3351 1452 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 4327 1476 0

Date: 2019-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20277 6309 79 175 1 0 0 0
OW 0 462 51 447 46 3 0 0
VODI 0 69 38 1022 512 49 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 663 2287 928 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 1737 4339 497 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 3542 2105 188
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20277 6170 82 239 4 1 0 0
OW 0 454 32 411 138 32 0 0
VODI 0 215 52 863 680 180 14 0
ODI 0 4 2 693 1244 295 140 0
CDI 0 0 0 122 2496 3603 1149 78
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 4750 1312 110


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