Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-08-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127728 17108 139 444 7 0 0 0
OW 0 1176 157 1091 79 1 0 0
VODI 0 353 71 2205 1809 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 284 6367 1538 134 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 2966 10908 3061 68
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2717 6299 295
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130283 15011 110 461 3 0 0 0
OW 0 1377 148 1076 98 1 0 0
VODI 0 400 90 2406 2158 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 365 6074 1534 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 3225 10144 2929 113
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1506 7000 502
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 132037 14843 148 454 7 0 0 0
OW 0 684 149 1093 73 0 0 0
VODI 0 59 32 2187 1246 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 198 8493 783 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1515 10829 853 268
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1321 7915 1858
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 132065 15065 168 510 20 0 0 0
OW 2 759 132 1169 103 1 0 0
VODI 0 119 51 2306 1658 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 496 7281 673 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 3071 9378 1159 508
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 2251 5744 2351
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 132067 15225 187 592 39 0 0 0
OW 0 593 116 1112 114 2 0 0
VODI 0 125 46 2281 1513 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 494 7162 671 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 3306 9421 1099 396
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2212 5804 2463

Date: 2019-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131708 15486 125 357 15 0 0 0
OW 1 964 153 1153 93 0 0 0
VODI 0 142 63 2943 1406 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 911 6638 401 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 4020 9508 1233 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5057 4640 5
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131709 15724 148 467 24 0 0 0
OW 0 744 129 1058 122 0 0 0
VODI 0 124 63 2800 1472 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 1039 6181 371 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 4370 9559 1025 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 5036 4850 5

Date: 2019-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130671 16821 90 266 8 0 0 0
OW 0 968 203 838 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 57 48 3724 716 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 286 8585 545 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1615 11158 452 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3113 6515 308
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130671 16573 120 467 13 0 0 0
OW 0 972 140 970 122 0 0 0
VODI 0 300 79 2515 1813 82 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 1145 4889 1044 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 4118 9201 1932 188
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4518 5032 120

Date: 2019-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 132894 14681 130 361 28 0 0 0
OW 5 772 172 1062 140 0 0 0
VODI 0 58 33 2524 1799 241 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 574 7011 1193 109 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 2848 9094 1403 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5127 4782 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 132871 14086 137 527 62 0 0 0
OW 25 984 117 943 323 7 0 0
VODI 3 433 77 1736 2359 471 18 0
ODI 0 8 4 1210 4258 787 441 0
CDI 0 0 0 110 4798 7636 2736 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 6754 3100 1

Date: 2019-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 132073 15519 129 323 26 0 0 0
OW 0 1052 155 1021 150 3 0 0
VODI 0 159 67 2377 2078 56 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 837 6035 1429 122 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 2299 8845 2564 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 4874 4439 388
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 132073 14985 159 556 46 1 0 0
OW 0 1117 101 873 325 32 0 0
VODI 0 593 85 1941 2427 216 16 0
ODI 0 38 6 1084 4073 703 297 0
CDI 0 0 0 126 3696 7758 3686 80
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 6497 3126 308


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