Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-08-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93169 5550 51 203 7 0 0 0
OW 0 136 24 346 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 21 557 315 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 78 640 399 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 125 3736 2945 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 73 629 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93571 5028 38 276 2 0 0 0
OW 0 132 22 355 76 1 0 0
VODI 0 68 15 469 349 26 8 0
ODI 0 12 13 71 466 543 41 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 133 2419 4353 33
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 99 462 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94590 4137 49 220 2 0 0 0
OW 0 82 25 300 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 8 568 166 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 78 564 112 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 182 2182 1080 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1603 3114 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94823 3812 51 246 0 0 0 0
OW 0 88 29 394 24 2 0 0
VODI 0 26 6 443 293 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 500 116 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 146 2682 777 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1035 3570 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94823 3819 55 273 0 0 0 0
OW 0 84 26 350 19 1 0 0
VODI 0 23 5 452 257 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 499 76 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 188 2706 711 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1052 3639 0

Date: 2019-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94770 3881 46 236 0 0 0 0
OW 0 131 43 391 23 1 0 0
VODI 0 26 6 428 278 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 471 107 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 356 2832 378 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1503 3120 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94770 3895 56 271 0 0 0 0
OW 0 99 31 333 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 8 440 273 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 67 419 89 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 414 2773 307 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1582 3190 0

Date: 2019-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95113 3561 39 202 3 0 0 0
OW 0 165 46 269 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 6 587 152 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 688 85 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 336 2571 96 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 659 4348 119
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95113 3557 42 290 19 0 0 0
OW 0 128 41 290 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 60 8 422 256 19 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 78 434 145 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 428 2416 457 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 738 3971 119

Date: 2019-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95231 3557 38 184 14 0 0 0
OW 0 175 48 260 58 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 9 396 273 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 527 159 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 363 2604 251 14
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 254 2808 1795
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95231 3472 39 233 42 0 0 0
OW 0 216 25 210 117 1 0 0
VODI 0 64 30 337 270 30 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 114 368 183 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 438 2498 760 17
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 309 2283 1792

Date: 2019-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95034 3709 28 169 13 0 0 0
OW 0 258 41 246 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 17 419 260 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 50 456 166 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1022 1974 657 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 757 2781 921
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95034 3656 30 219 61 0 0 0
OW 0 238 21 229 131 5 0 0
VODI 0 95 32 312 252 39 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 121 335 211 62 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1041 1901 1166 66
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 750 2229 858


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