Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-08-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16700 7653 83 165 9 0 0 0
OW 0 984 73 491 54 1 0 0
VODI 0 303 45 1148 645 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 85 2705 740 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 866 7823 4330 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 100 816 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18454 6243 63 121 3 0 0 0
OW 0 1080 54 359 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 365 55 1030 671 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 167 2408 1397 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 885 7896 3976 177
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 28 366 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20217 5418 38 113 8 0 0 0
OW 0 824 68 263 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 129 44 1318 472 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 102 3056 529 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 987 4901 3023 377
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1162 2481 305
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20543 5207 41 122 8 0 0 0
OW 0 817 64 344 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 179 47 1229 620 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 116 2721 491 145 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1434 4865 2775 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 622 3447 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20543 5265 43 137 9 0 0 0
OW 0 680 62 288 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 258 47 1220 542 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 166 2697 441 252 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1535 4838 2737 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 696 3378 0

Date: 2019-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19532 6207 50 159 4 0 0 0
OW 0 803 63 400 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 299 53 1067 635 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 182 2484 732 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 1508 5002 2378 218
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 688 2949 400
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19532 6267 55 188 4 0 0 0
OW 0 698 53 324 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 344 58 1090 637 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 202 2397 826 32 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 1613 4815 2405 241
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 776 2896 377

Date: 2019-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21401 5037 46 115 0 0 0 0
OW 0 471 81 360 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 54 21 1182 324 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 91 3456 143 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 778 5910 798 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 394 4500 698
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21401 4560 48 136 2 0 0 0
OW 0 674 42 369 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 328 58 991 697 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 237 2272 943 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 1552 4935 2514 42
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 543 2777 656

Date: 2019-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20942 5767 43 158 0 0 0 0
OW 0 342 56 430 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 64 17 951 511 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 271 2949 231 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1282 5595 570 321
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1210 2819 1315
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20942 5136 23 118 0 0 0 0
OW 0 690 42 357 92 0 0 0
VODI 0 341 49 907 713 60 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 418 2056 980 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 1903 4966 1410 1444
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1030 1968 192

Date: 2019-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21081 5630 61 166 2 0 0 0
OW 0 357 61 479 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 25 976 538 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 306 2815 191 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1247 5787 905 188
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1506 2830 616
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21081 4926 53 183 35 0 0 0
OW 0 683 27 313 108 0 0 0
VODI 0 431 62 858 665 56 0 0
ODI 0 13 5 563 1894 808 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 1933 5728 2834 803
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 892 889 1


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