Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-08-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118414 21424 165 490 42 0 0 0
OW 0 2811 208 1239 133 1 0 0
VODI 0 467 105 2636 1515 48 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 226 4887 3700 327 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 1143 15148 10270 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 176 1445 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122244 18646 125 488 10 0 0 0
OW 10 3083 135 976 149 1 0 0
VODI 0 635 122 2354 1401 31 8 0
ODI 0 12 15 420 6348 2896 41 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 1841 14179 9684 210
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 127 828 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126078 18155 133 430 15 0 0 0
OW 19 1134 140 858 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 178 68 2567 1021 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 240 7095 1139 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 2406 10987 4170 377
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 3693 5731 305
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129678 14965 137 438 8 0 0 0
OW 0 1132 138 1069 87 2 0 0
VODI 0 235 71 2326 1632 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 160 6624 1389 162 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2529 10901 3927 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 1957 7464 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129678 15006 145 519 23 0 0 0
OW 0 992 131 914 80 1 0 0
VODI 0 334 70 2300 1597 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 260 6391 1626 288 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2777 10542 3770 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 2077 7495 0

Date: 2019-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128809 16247 130 449 4 0 0 0
OW 0 1276 155 1103 67 1 0 0
VODI 0 383 82 2325 1941 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 300 6467 1389 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 3479 10202 2819 218
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2432 6334 400
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128809 16334 152 569 5 0 0 0
OW 0 1081 121 933 76 0 0 0
VODI 0 491 95 2282 2014 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 389 6245 1424 35 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 3618 9974 2764 241
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2622 6362 377

Date: 2019-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 132206 14250 148 420 3 0 0 0
OW 0 773 161 1046 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 84 34 2573 767 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 124 9320 399 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1615 10789 1009 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1128 9362 817
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 132206 13411 118 520 25 0 0 0
OW 0 1176 121 991 133 0 0 0
VODI 0 520 104 2182 2586 49 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 455 5300 1783 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 3678 9135 3287 42
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1352 7052 775

Date: 2019-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131442 15617 152 507 14 0 0 0
OW 2 687 137 1130 85 0 0 0
VODI 0 100 34 2241 1345 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 638 7463 959 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2006 10499 914 335
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1661 5966 3110
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131444 14482 105 511 42 0 0 0
OW 0 1293 92 933 256 1 0 0
VODI 0 619 123 2376 2539 106 0 0
ODI 0 10 3 686 4703 1757 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 3373 9866 2395 1461
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1393 4458 1984

Date: 2019-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131702 15524 152 444 15 0 0 0
OW 2 856 139 1174 119 0 0 0
VODI 0 143 61 2685 1533 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 569 7000 442 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3485 9305 1562 191
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2769 5611 1537
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131704 14356 124 566 96 0 0 0
OW 0 1339 82 890 289 5 0 0
VODI 0 815 138 2419 2417 95 0 0
ODI 0 13 8 983 4541 1158 74 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 4809 9408 4000 869
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1859 3118 859


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