Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2019-08-08

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-08-12

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 415 3258 30 73 1 0 0 0
OW 0 399 84 371 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 20 1110 308 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 52 4854 431 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 541 12315 2643 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 752 8144 1064
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 415 2685 28 82 1 0 0 0
OW 0 723 43 332 23 1 0 0
VODI 0 239 45 942 807 19 1 0
ODI 0 37 9 202 3917 3363 60 0
CDI 0 5 9 48 945 9714 10125 1064
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 401 601 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 143 686 21 74 1 0 0 0
OW 0 31 2 68 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 3 94 155 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 34 694 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 265 800 28 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 143 681 20 107 9 0 0 0
OW 0 28 1 44 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 4 46 258 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 63 494 53 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 11 316 766 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2483 2038 4 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 778 21 77 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 125 43 985 123 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 1638 39 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 350 1131 67 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2483 1862 3 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 790 19 82 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 289 41 787 113 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 241 1330 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 661 1144 82 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5577 77 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5577 77 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3718 3233 9 20 0 0 0 0
OW 27 185 11 43 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3639 3009 13 24 0 0 0 0
OW 103 368 7 39 0 0 0 0
VODI 3 41 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3222 1452 8 25 0 0 0 0
OW 0 52 15 67 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 132 44 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 291 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3222 1368 8 33 0 0 0 0
OW 0 71 3 41 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 62 7 78 44 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 6 80 216 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 67 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4447 1870 5 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 2 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4447 1870 5 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 1 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8506 2575 12 35 6 0 0 0
OW 0 33 8 16 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 0 34 12 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 36 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 11 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8506 2526 9 26 7 0 0 0
OW 0 59 8 15 4 1 0 0
VODI 0 28 2 30 17 14 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 12 27 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 14 8 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8360 1986 20 150 2 0 0 0
OW 0 39 10 173 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 397 133 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 327 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 43 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8360 1980 25 278 11 0 0 0
OW 0 45 6 194 77 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 264 270 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 123 51 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4968 779 11 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 4 11 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4968 773 10 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 11 3 8 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 19 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7638 945 3 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7638 945 3 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20095 111 2 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20095 111 2 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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