Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-08-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114438 20287 159 702 44 0 0 0
OW 17 2511 259 2069 164 0 0 0
VODI 0 360 112 4471 1851 46 0 0
ODI 0 5 6 450 5521 1704 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 2276 18552 5395 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 117 950 3753 769
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115417 20282 171 687 47 0 0 0
OW 0 2936 261 2174 238 0 0 0
VODI 0 470 130 3533 1887 58 0 0
ODI 0 45 18 737 5387 2255 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 60 2002 21440 2805 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 127 991 2797 78
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116979 21266 175 548 24 0 0 0
OW 1 2106 258 1629 111 0 0 0
VODI 0 339 96 3731 1302 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 171 6408 1484 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 1422 18951 5740 280
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 996 2931 32
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118124 21129 176 645 24 0 0 0
OW 0 2422 253 1450 158 0 0 0
VODI 0 438 101 2933 1512 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 147 4908 2991 560 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 1319 17671 7959 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 281 1802 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118124 21647 202 814 48 0 0 0
OW 0 1861 208 1409 122 0 0 0
VODI 0 481 120 2695 1531 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 257 4802 3153 514 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 1425 17200 7773 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 580 2034 0

Date: 2019-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120213 20168 136 468 63 0 0 0
OW 18 3003 173 1038 161 0 0 0
VODI 0 537 105 2481 1423 44 0 0
ODI 0 6 13 329 6011 2977 90 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 1159 15127 9823 130
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 227 1099 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120185 21030 152 597 93 0 0 0
OW 46 2183 147 934 122 2 0 0
VODI 0 491 115 2333 1463 40 0 0
ODI 0 10 13 440 5831 2987 84 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 1307 14916 9709 130
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 430 1219 0

Date: 2019-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124420 19010 125 399 10 0 0 0
OW 27 1528 157 827 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 167 69 2766 775 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 176 7840 518 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1175 14300 2738 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 752 8161 1064
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124341 17887 126 574 28 0 0 0
OW 103 2100 91 756 172 2 0 0
VODI 3 671 103 2166 1509 36 1 0
ODI 0 42 22 605 6107 3506 60 0
CDI 0 5 10 68 2003 11632 10237 1064
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 401 601 0

Date: 2019-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128136 16368 134 397 7 0 0 0
OW 0 1128 133 981 54 2 0 0
VODI 0 195 74 2470 1342 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 195 6909 1166 92 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 2518 11342 3832 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4256 5299 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127779 15154 96 499 33 0 0 0
OW 351 1746 104 814 219 6 0 0
VODI 6 704 103 2062 2052 62 21 0
ODI 0 87 33 586 5892 3185 866 0
CDI 0 0 5 87 2634 13299 8146 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 227 190 0

Date: 2019-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127728 17108 139 444 7 0 0 0
OW 0 1176 157 1091 79 1 0 0
VODI 0 353 71 2205 1809 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 284 6367 1538 134 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 2966 10908 3061 68
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2717 6299 295
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127477 15928 128 596 75 0 0 0
OW 251 1609 83 848 298 21 0 0
VODI 0 926 114 1876 2462 237 20 0
ODI 0 159 27 627 5708 3483 528 0
CDI 0 15 16 91 2685 11400 8808 363
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 51 138 0


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