Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2019-08-01

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-08-05

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 41 1683 7 29 0 0 0 0
OW 0 729 76 275 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 145 51 1338 323 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 4486 449 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 345 19531 2717 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1206 3385 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 41 1817 30 162 16 0 0 0
OW 0 571 49 355 96 0 0 0
VODI 0 168 48 976 900 56 0 0
ODI 0 1 7 209 2825 1879 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 1337 17689 4463 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1566 1619 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 29 474 22 99 2 0 0 0
OW 0 45 10 82 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 4 201 186 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 37 501 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 504 766 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 5 81 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 29 459 22 142 24 0 0 0
OW 0 35 7 50 66 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 4 105 195 2 0 0
ODI 0 9 4 54 286 140 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 44 541 648 84 0
VCDI 0 0 0 35 125 1 0 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1752 2263 11 52 0 0 0 0
OW 0 349 17 138 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 184 55 1189 129 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 64 1714 83 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 246 1540 107 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 80 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1752 2167 17 84 0 0 0 0
OW 0 288 17 260 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 287 35 678 287 0 0 0
ODI 0 54 14 421 1435 476 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 364 1154 187 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4835 817 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4835 819 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 614 3862 36 108 0 0 0 0
OW 1 958 91 424 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 89 35 1024 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 615 3613 45 228 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1182 97 885 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 114 20 443 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1830 2508 9 31 2 0 0 0
OW 0 60 11 77 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 5 134 62 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 264 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 281 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1830 2502 11 84 9 0 0 0
OW 0 57 10 91 57 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 4 54 119 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 129 107 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 28 175 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3770 2167 13 46 19 0 0 0
OW 0 99 24 84 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 87 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3770 2152 14 58 24 0 0 0
OW 0 112 23 107 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 53 5 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9088 2000 19 26 1 0 0 0
OW 0 2 9 41 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 19 27 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 60 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 9 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9088 1988 19 29 3 0 0 0
OW 0 14 8 34 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 23 49 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 35 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8144 2133 18 66 0 0 0 0
OW 0 84 25 247 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 537 101 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 244 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 43 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8144 2021 21 128 1 0 0 0
OW 0 174 20 256 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 3 462 222 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 89 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5020 697 11 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 0 20 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 23 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5020 695 10 29 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 1 18 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 21 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8092 493 1 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8092 493 1 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20095 107 3 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20095 107 3 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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