Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-08-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10860 9055 100 825 29 0 0 0
OW 0 693 69 592 70 2 0 0
VODI 0 148 36 1799 1339 43 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 85 3321 1359 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 10 511 9181 4645 404
VCDI 0 0 0 4 268 358 39 17
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12328 8366 89 599 9 0 0 0
OW 0 913 70 769 118 0 0 0
VODI 0 218 47 1862 1261 20 0 0
ODI 0 15 2 53 3059 1567 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 4 468 7968 4129 1277
VCDI 0 0 0 4 318 294 17 21
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13340 8514 88 490 16 0 0 0
OW 0 498 79 754 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 57 23 1397 951 1 0 0
ODI 0 10 0 23 2932 630 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 8 1004 9105 3177 107
VCDI 0 0 0 4 73 181 1980 394
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13742 8577 69 398 2 0 0 0
OW 0 876 81 629 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 99 49 1498 678 3 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 80 3002 596 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 1061 10499 2003 4
VCDI 0 0 0 5 129 371 1230 117
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13742 8805 84 515 10 0 0 0
OW 0 583 64 587 66 0 0 0
VODI 0 161 51 1330 644 2 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 170 2875 691 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 28 1174 10435 1968 7
VCDI 0 0 0 6 139 341 1265 114

Date: 2019-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14773 7938 79 354 1 0 0 0
OW 11 964 67 608 75 0 0 0
VODI 0 278 49 1306 560 9 0 0
ODI 0 31 12 573 2805 476 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 73 1610 10099 2089 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 138 158 710 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14784 8150 87 488 11 0 0 0
OW 0 689 55 489 91 0 0 0
VODI 0 317 51 1249 614 7 0 0
ODI 0 55 14 608 2582 560 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 72 1730 9958 2143 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 161 217 656 0

Date: 2019-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17490 5908 58 227 2 0 0 0
OW 0 834 59 437 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 259 88 1867 393 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 109 2968 203 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 803 10221 2130 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 185 1565 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17490 5867 76 401 24 0 0 0
OW 0 678 50 543 92 0 0 0
VODI 0 391 62 1056 676 26 0 0
ODI 0 63 18 572 2096 1158 13 0
CDI 0 2 1 44 1200 9402 3458 0
VCDI 0 0 0 35 125 23 224 0

Date: 2019-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17011 6885 57 311 3 0 0 0
OW 0 899 69 494 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 303 65 1401 547 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 122 2596 479 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 1381 7727 3965 208
VCDI 0 0 0 0 36 310 909 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17011 6773 72 411 41 0 0 0
OW 0 678 47 568 108 0 0 0
VODI 0 516 55 878 714 35 0 0
ODI 0 103 13 406 2331 1215 0 0
CDI 0 17 4 54 1327 7266 4874 208
VCDI 0 0 0 31 110 0 0 0

Date: 2019-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16700 7653 83 165 9 0 0 0
OW 0 984 73 491 54 1 0 0
VODI 0 303 45 1148 645 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 85 2705 740 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 866 7823 4330 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 100 816 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16700 7709 95 373 26 0 0 0
OW 0 668 43 447 95 22 0 0
VODI 0 442 43 766 791 127 0 0
ODI 0 99 15 245 2323 1900 9 0
CDI 0 22 5 44 989 6637 5137 11
VCDI 0 0 0 28 55 0 0 0


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