Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-08-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105219 24993 277 1510 77 5 0 0
OW 0 1202 177 1732 258 20 0 0
VODI 0 272 67 4567 3371 114 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 268 7412 2865 20 0
CDI 0 1 0 10 1790 19460 10100 572
VCDI 0 0 0 4 268 358 39 17
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107484 23772 240 1138 76 1 0 0
OW 0 1754 198 2011 301 23 0 0
VODI 0 500 118 4709 3421 131 0 0
ODI 0 15 2 403 7006 4316 143 0
CDI 0 1 0 11 1189 14908 10122 2401
VCDI 0 0 0 4 318 294 17 21
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112932 20631 196 817 46 0 0 0
OW 0 1547 271 1870 79 0 0 0
VODI 0 150 76 5296 2207 24 0 0
ODI 0 11 0 85 5726 1376 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 8 1319 19219 5244 107
VCDI 0 0 0 4 73 1602 5633 497
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113863 20444 174 762 36 0 0 0
OW 0 2255 274 1941 138 1 0 0
VODI 0 272 114 4678 2111 51 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 146 5361 1838 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 1552 19384 5412 4
VCDI 0 0 0 5 129 1169 4433 467
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113863 20983 237 1053 69 0 0 0
OW 0 1629 218 2055 182 1 0 0
VODI 0 356 107 4134 1863 44 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 284 5355 2088 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 28 1719 19152 5126 7
VCDI 0 0 0 6 139 1158 4719 464

Date: 2019-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114138 20997 189 730 36 0 0 0
OW 11 2671 268 2198 181 0 0 0
VODI 0 370 110 3939 1963 66 0 0
ODI 0 31 12 717 5492 1891 18 0
CDI 0 0 1 74 2251 19542 4414 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 138 1293 3108 180
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114149 21629 227 1072 61 0 0 0
OW 0 1952 230 2261 208 0 0 0
VODI 0 433 101 3479 1894 65 0 0
ODI 0 55 21 766 5205 1848 81 0
CDI 0 0 1 72 2532 19514 4144 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 161 1365 3315 180

Date: 2019-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118158 19204 150 489 24 0 0 0
OW 1 2329 263 1388 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 431 151 4552 840 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 198 7275 615 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 1110 22170 2827 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 1218 3546 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118159 18833 193 949 77 0 0 0
OW 0 2436 232 2056 288 0 0 0
VODI 0 629 115 2815 1779 113 0 0
ODI 0 64 25 737 4799 2664 20 0
CDI 0 2 1 46 2270 19666 4734 0
VCDI 0 0 0 35 125 1567 1619 0

Date: 2019-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117212 21511 168 693 30 0 0 0
OW 0 2033 261 1724 169 0 0 0
VODI 0 368 100 3314 1424 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 200 5641 2378 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 1532 18489 6656 208
VCDI 0 0 0 0 36 565 2237 53
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117212 21035 216 1228 119 0 0 0
OW 0 2056 177 1929 403 7 0 0
VODI 0 689 106 2178 2091 162 0 0
ODI 0 115 26 523 4374 3537 62 0
CDI 0 17 4 62 1735 17053 8165 208
VCDI 0 0 0 31 110 688 677 53

Date: 2019-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118414 21424 165 490 42 0 0 0
OW 0 2811 208 1239 133 1 0 0
VODI 0 467 105 2636 1515 48 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 226 4887 3700 327 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 1143 15148 10270 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 176 1445 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118414 21471 221 1045 111 3 0 0
OW 0 2289 128 1216 302 44 0 0
VODI 0 772 92 1861 2011 469 0 0
ODI 0 146 32 370 3929 4540 298 0
CDI 0 24 8 85 1312 14008 11625 11
VCDI 0 0 0 28 55 9 119 0


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