Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-07-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92415 27825 434 3272 1018 1 0 0
OW 5 919 196 2590 1112 3 0 0
VODI 0 101 41 3026 4589 168 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 308 8984 1404 84 0
CDI 0 1 0 17 2988 18305 1061 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 582 10867 4731 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94486 26808 443 3740 710 11 0 0
OW 0 929 201 2852 1311 29 0 0
VODI 0 133 33 2248 6085 217 0 0
ODI 0 5 2 289 7519 1797 92 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 3490 19035 1650 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 513 10385 1992 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94526 28534 475 3266 489 0 0 0
OW 0 633 180 2269 429 12 0 0
VODI 0 129 26 3058 3107 43 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 137 11560 1178 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 2089 24163 2210 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 506 6686 1329 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100357 24301 387 2826 138 0 0 0
OW 46 994 196 2528 379 20 0 0
VODI 50 137 34 3293 3896 54 0 0
ODI 0 9 2 225 10017 1788 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 1613 23114 3524 469
VCDI 0 0 0 31 506 3842 2251 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100368 24509 426 3358 202 0 0 0
OW 48 748 157 2426 611 18 0 0
VODI 37 164 33 2756 4043 60 0 0
ODI 0 20 3 330 9242 1889 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 1937 22667 3487 469
VCDI 0 0 0 37 514 4184 2275 0

Date: 2019-07-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101374 24335 376 2631 90 6 0 0
OW 122 1437 153 2530 492 21 0 0
VODI 38 152 24 3130 5083 118 0 0
ODI 0 14 0 180 8183 3093 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 1338 24857 1979 24
VCDI 0 0 0 6 340 1446 3371 77
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101398 24658 410 3245 189 6 0 0
OW 124 1085 121 2444 742 18 0 0
VODI 12 169 22 2452 4994 110 0 0
ODI 0 26 0 330 7751 3271 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 1464 24364 1891 16
VCDI 0 0 0 15 386 1772 3469 85

Date: 2019-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103880 24049 343 1882 122 0 0 0
OW 35 842 152 1519 161 9 0 0
VODI 0 71 29 3429 2042 36 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 221 10437 624 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 1395 28611 4261 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 337 469 2067 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103831 23781 391 2913 350 4 0 0
OW 66 1017 107 1972 1309 26 0 0
VODI 17 148 26 1958 6173 287 0 0
ODI 1 17 0 162 4949 5925 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 1268 22957 4451 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 445 550 1871 0

Date: 2019-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104940 24278 324 1687 161 8 0 0
OW 3 768 137 1777 223 16 0 0
VODI 0 167 44 4157 2854 61 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 316 8319 1670 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 1867 24005 7405 425
VCDI 0 0 0 0 328 204 258 626
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104890 24129 352 2901 533 20 0 0
OW 34 828 109 2140 1279 47 0 0
VODI 19 256 44 2624 5786 625 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 223 4425 6246 111 0
CDI 0 1 0 50 1318 18761 7418 1041
VCDI 0 0 0 14 411 265 135 10

Date: 2019-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105219 24993 277 1510 77 5 0 0
OW 0 1202 177 1732 258 20 0 0
VODI 0 272 67 4567 3371 114 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 268 7412 2865 20 0
CDI 0 1 0 10 1790 19460 10100 572
VCDI 0 0 0 4 268 358 39 17
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105153 25037 364 3106 657 19 0 0
OW 48 1034 108 2095 1333 93 0 0
VODI 18 343 44 2698 5753 885 12 0
ODI 0 37 1 155 4078 6283 145 0
CDI 0 19 5 25 956 15300 10001 589
VCDI 0 0 0 12 399 242 1 0


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