Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-07-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-06-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 822 8788 245 1401 318 7 0 0
OW 0 140 48 1290 750 3 0 0
VODI 0 26 9 515 3097 315 0 0
ODI 0 12 6 59 1285 674 0 0
CDI 0 14 4 72 1852 4145 644 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 736 5966 10557 2066
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1324 8998 209 1333 474 2 0 0
OW 1 251 54 1114 1383 4 0 0
VODI 0 126 19 478 2510 415 0 0
ODI 0 67 7 139 1329 303 0 0
CDI 0 49 5 107 2868 4580 86 0
VCDI 0 29 0 35 1120 8119 7925 403
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1406 9752 230 1570 360 0 0 0
OW 1 229 61 1318 708 2 0 0
VODI 0 58 14 860 2687 42 0 0
ODI 0 15 4 207 2805 217 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 66 2681 5312 0 0
VCDI 0 1 0 8 204 10121 4924 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1614 10230 243 1862 338 0 0 0
OW 0 225 37 1524 1376 3 0 0
VODI 0 33 15 540 2357 125 0 0
ODI 0 14 4 153 2281 362 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 78 3376 4586 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 311 11607 2570 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1614 10263 246 2326 595 0 0 0
OW 0 187 35 1024 1201 3 0 0
VODI 0 32 13 580 2289 166 0 0
ODI 0 18 4 143 2314 422 0 0
CDI 0 3 2 84 3361 4400 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 279 11692 2570 0

Date: 2019-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2617 10177 233 1966 367 3 0 0
OW 0 295 45 1660 1530 7 0 0
VODI 0 30 15 330 1835 40 0 0
ODI 0 13 6 114 2304 411 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 3524 4823 257 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 217 11572 1449 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2617 10240 240 2706 799 4 0 0
OW 0 226 42 911 1186 8 0 0
VODI 0 30 11 339 1836 125 0 0
ODI 0 17 4 104 2085 369 0 0
CDI 0 2 2 35 3732 4709 227 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 139 11641 1479 0

Date: 2019-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3207 10429 248 1977 400 0 0 0
OW 0 204 36 914 600 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 9 595 1586 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 147 4822 264 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 3 2509 6206 181 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 371 9813 1314 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3207 10420 254 2657 1820 0 0 0
OW 0 162 26 496 880 3 0 0
VODI 0 34 8 282 1709 95 0 0
ODI 0 36 3 136 1819 312 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 65 3670 5341 200 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 390 10538 1295 0

Date: 2019-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4465 9974 240 2138 643 0 0 0
OW 0 145 32 934 746 2 0 0
VODI 0 9 8 486 1865 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 60 3528 650 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1982 7130 651 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 442 7966 1768 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4465 9952 248 2833 1745 1 0 0
OW 0 95 18 434 751 3 0 0
VODI 0 46 9 200 1703 77 0 0
ODI 0 35 5 107 1494 493 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 3014 6736 633 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 499 8440 1786 0

Date: 2019-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4406 10537 191 2144 726 0 0 0
OW 5 110 37 1049 689 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 927 1891 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 64 3332 235 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2535 7467 244 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 582 6082 2609 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4411 10470 194 3056 1558 0 0 0
OW 0 100 25 578 724 1 0 0
VODI 0 47 8 359 1476 32 0 0
ODI 0 30 4 175 1618 385 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 3705 6788 139 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 674 6579 2714 0


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