Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2019-06-27

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-07-01

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 88 0 23 22 0 0 0
OW 0 17 7 70 42 3 0 0
VODI 0 3 4 96 177 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 531 86 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 177 9539 435 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 12412 11537 1604
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 40 0 41 63 2 0 0
OW 0 22 0 44 142 9 0 0
VODI 0 17 7 51 275 125 0 0
ODI 0 20 0 44 206 358 0 0
CDI 0 9 4 28 263 7568 678 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 13988 11294 1604

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 242 0 9 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 14 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 23 30 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 121 42 0 0
CDI 0 7 0 25 543 746 0 0
VCDI 0 63 0 46 546 653 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 242 0 16 5 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 12 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 16 30 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 86 41 0 0
CDI 0 7 0 30 379 507 0 0
VCDI 0 63 0 46 740 884 0 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1741 40 256 202 0 0 0
OW 0 65 21 97 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 9 233 264 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 6 124 1406 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 1388 1870 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 884 1261 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1706 47 308 266 0 0 0
OW 0 60 6 61 117 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 12 150 249 0 0 0
ODI 0 19 4 98 517 0 0 0
CDI 0 8 7 129 2154 1443 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 1311 1263 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 701 2400 43 164 0 0 0 0
OW 2 24 12 215 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 3 130 250 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 758 52 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 338 525 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 702 2258 27 226 37 0 0 0
OW 1 139 24 170 121 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 7 88 283 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 409 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 526 571 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 165 23 64 36 0 0 0
OW 0 42 11 192 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 416 222 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 2278 190 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 518 3008 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 182 27 161 81 0 0 0
OW 0 25 9 213 111 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 278 581 52 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 45 1404 190 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 863 2958 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 6 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1815 70 312 119 3 0 0
OW 0 23 20 224 110 22 0 0
VODI 0 2 4 222 391 61 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 974 216 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 47 650 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1798 73 349 203 24 0 0
OW 0 36 14 226 229 65 0 0
VODI 0 6 7 171 548 195 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 44 498 480 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 163 188 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4 3517 77 406 69 5 0 0
OW 0 106 41 293 63 2 0 0
VODI 0 11 0 247 349 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 560 89 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 31 427 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 21 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4 3369 78 494 112 5 0 0
OW 0 243 31 333 240 10 0 0
VODI 0 22 9 120 658 68 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 62 382 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 70 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6692 3210 24 99 27 2 0 0
OW 0 110 42 114 22 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 157 183 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 314 30 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 12 189 29 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 12 56 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6692 3211 30 133 48 3 0 0
OW 0 104 22 72 61 1 0 0
VODI 0 5 17 160 272 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 171 97 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 6 117 72 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 12 12 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6115 2778 32 279 72 2 0 0
OW 0 27 9 189 278 10 0 0
VODI 0 5 3 120 343 18 0 0
ODI 0 10 4 66 986 134 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 59 157 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6115 2788 37 406 304 16 0 0
OW 0 9 2 97 469 40 0 0
VODI 0 8 2 56 519 114 0 0
ODI 0 15 7 95 408 115 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 38 36 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11590 1190 11 106 8 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 27 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 31 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11587 1189 11 109 23 0 0 0
OW 3 1 0 24 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 182 3783 63 286 83 0 0 0
OW 0 62 25 282 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 3 292 258 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 324 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 67 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 182 3834 83 615 208 0 0 0
OW 0 13 8 214 298 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 39 164 33 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 41 69 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 300 3155 80 567 66 0 0 0
OW 0 101 31 639 227 0 0 0
VODI 0 31 3 275 2178 0 0 0
ODI 0 15 0 26 856 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 300 3181 90 1003 296 0 0 0
OW 0 56 15 422 1233 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 9 60 1473 36 0 0
ODI 0 19 0 20 285 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 40 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17896 1799 24 159 49 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 56 55 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 12 115 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 40 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17896 1799 25 200 107 2 0 0
OW 0 0 0 22 102 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 5 50 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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