Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-06-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79526 12886 193 1079 61 4 10 0
OW 8 70 43 816 276 7 2 0
VODI 0 2 3 422 1579 88 7 0
ODI 0 0 2 41 1389 384 15 0
CDI 0 18 7 91 787 998 133 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 756 5293 2104
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79306 13415 185 1069 106 14 0 0
OW 6 74 47 828 595 24 0 0
VODI 0 10 5 373 1485 108 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 72 1389 310 5 0
CDI 0 23 8 131 774 924 225 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 1435 5368 765
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80744 12216 175 908 134 13 0 0
OW 6 237 41 663 301 6 1 0
VODI 0 19 3 590 1173 59 2 0
ODI 0 14 9 160 2147 312 18 0
CDI 0 8 0 32 295 1333 150 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 2478 3323 1528
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80769 12477 168 967 151 7 0 0
OW 4 121 59 752 597 11 1 0
VODI 0 11 8 350 1598 84 10 0
ODI 0 40 13 116 1368 366 24 0
CDI 0 2 2 31 381 823 154 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 2748 3674 1189
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80769 12528 192 1074 171 4 0 0
OW 4 68 36 653 497 26 0 0
VODI 0 10 7 329 1671 79 10 0
ODI 0 34 11 124 1355 332 20 0
CDI 0 11 4 36 414 857 110 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 2741 3723 1189

Date: 2019-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82042 11722 139 934 226 5 0 0
OW 16 105 56 709 801 23 0 0
VODI 0 18 10 356 1528 98 0 0
ODI 0 44 7 139 857 320 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 18 219 871 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 3707 3568 534
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82046 11766 166 1075 283 9 0 0
OW 12 62 30 635 764 20 0 0
VODI 0 13 8 281 1466 95 0 0
ODI 0 41 7 130 885 270 0 0
CDI 0 7 3 35 230 840 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 3790 3590 534

Date: 2019-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83760 10592 107 650 151 4 0 0
OW 2 183 71 525 403 16 0 0
VODI 0 8 10 506 865 31 0 0
ODI 0 10 4 90 1754 186 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 150 996 191 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2030 4858 946
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83759 10589 132 1036 562 23 0 0
OW 3 130 24 325 931 51 0 0
VODI 0 30 25 246 990 163 0 0
ODI 0 35 7 136 637 262 2 0
CDI 0 9 4 28 203 653 301 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2111 4747 946

Date: 2019-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83855 11102 102 648 223 20 0 0
OW 0 232 68 487 308 51 0 0
VODI 0 34 22 649 677 86 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 98 1194 383 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 131 934 120 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 3617 3667 390
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83855 11070 113 1111 473 78 0 0
OW 0 177 34 334 613 185 0 0
VODI 0 84 31 261 663 154 0 0
ODI 0 22 8 145 559 198 0 0
CDI 0 15 6 31 221 809 253 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 3667 3534 390

Date: 2019-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84278 10995 84 677 336 21 0 0
OW 0 294 59 460 318 51 0 0
VODI 0 37 26 575 678 152 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 46 922 408 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 166 866 250 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 71 4658 2670 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84278 10965 100 1141 607 146 0 0
OW 0 228 22 296 372 235 0 0
VODI 0 95 31 177 630 117 0 0
ODI 0 28 11 109 516 128 0 0
CDI 0 10 5 35 289 687 358 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 77 4843 2564 0


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