Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-06-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 310 7076 214 1675 386 13 0 0
OW 5 281 71 1100 560 23 0 0
VODI 0 88 20 612 2007 404 0 0
ODI 0 22 2 92 1287 1515 42 0
CDI 0 14 5 91 1068 3096 395 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 933 2686 10404 9369
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 368 7730 269 1539 346 11 0 0
OW 4 231 62 919 1040 51 0 0
VODI 0 46 19 437 1681 1191 0 0
ODI 0 28 2 100 877 1363 0 0
CDI 0 35 7 109 1031 3329 409 0
VCDI 0 2 0 7 1012 2413 10396 8802
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 463 8392 257 1239 303 9 0 0
OW 4 145 72 1104 308 14 0 0
VODI 0 125 9 736 1982 45 0 0
ODI 0 147 6 86 2685 644 0 0
CDI 0 15 2 83 1242 3329 798 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 677 5342 9888 5715
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 781 8624 258 1241 305 7 0 0
OW 1 117 56 1263 567 11 0 0
VODI 0 23 7 575 3026 277 0 0
ODI 0 16 6 78 1432 813 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 75 1733 3806 553 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1032 6495 9270 3411
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 781 8640 263 1559 432 9 0 0
OW 1 103 50 881 624 13 0 0
VODI 0 21 8 629 2653 261 0 0
ODI 0 15 5 74 1588 713 0 0
CDI 0 6 3 89 1777 3824 470 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1021 6589 9353 3411

Date: 2019-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1238 8828 206 1329 344 2 0 0
OW 2 199 49 1295 923 4 0 0
VODI 0 37 18 495 2919 349 0 0
ODI 0 18 6 71 1388 450 0 0
CDI 0 9 2 57 2234 4654 321 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 794 7305 9773 545
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1238 8879 221 1692 584 1 0 0
OW 2 135 35 912 872 26 0 0
VODI 0 50 17 512 2651 326 0 0
ODI 0 16 5 66 1436 407 0 0
CDI 0 11 3 65 2264 4565 381 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 795 7439 9713 545

Date: 2019-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1373 9456 210 1287 370 0 0 0
OW 2 219 71 1159 345 0 0 0
VODI 0 50 18 888 2852 4 0 0
ODI 0 22 6 179 3469 159 0 0
CDI 0 7 0 61 2280 5729 8 0
VCDI 0 63 0 46 548 8796 5844 345
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1374 9331 218 2014 753 0 0 0
OW 1 260 48 825 1553 0 0 0
VODI 0 110 28 412 2194 51 0 0
ODI 0 38 4 159 1458 67 0 0
CDI 0 15 7 164 3155 4158 0 0
VCDI 0 63 0 46 751 10412 5852 345

Date: 2019-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1494 9992 230 1632 405 0 0 0
OW 1 248 50 1249 1228 14 0 0
VODI 0 49 18 626 2655 66 0 0
ODI 0 16 4 187 2403 372 0 0
CDI 0 2 2 72 3171 4761 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 409 10822 3688 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1495 9834 230 2398 1365 2 0 0
OW 0 312 39 669 1794 23 0 0
VODI 0 100 15 325 1365 97 0 0
ODI 0 37 11 166 1116 158 0 0
CDI 0 24 9 208 4190 3690 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 441 12065 3688 0

Date: 2019-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2301 9859 243 1966 498 0 0 0
OW 0 212 50 1354 1825 6 0 0
VODI 0 27 10 510 1930 84 0 0
ODI 0 11 5 243 2186 383 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 3349 4798 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 109 12113 1742 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2301 9814 260 3059 1768 1 0 0
OW 0 187 22 347 1302 11 0 0
VODI 0 76 15 304 1198 90 0 0
ODI 0 20 6 224 1028 98 0 0
CDI 0 12 5 190 4336 4133 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 265 13051 1742 0


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