Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-06-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-06-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 215 5415 156 1399 405 17 0 0
OW 10 252 45 821 905 35 0 0
VODI 0 90 42 596 1287 692 8 0
ODI 0 86 10 299 919 1168 221 0
CDI 0 13 6 105 1158 3339 1110 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 539 2917 8985 12601
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-06-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 205 5628 200 1621 398 15 0 0
OW 4 265 51 1136 874 92 0 0
VODI 0 132 36 611 1276 1177 16 0
ODI 0 83 11 239 1060 884 263 0
CDI 0 4 3 109 1576 3122 436 0
VCDI 0 0 0 75 622 4335 9735 9572
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-06-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 248 6274 208 1619 406 9 0 0
OW 7 199 57 1070 431 11 0 0
VODI 0 116 21 739 1324 78 0 0
ODI 0 32 4 102 1934 1251 1 0
CDI 0 1 0 69 1414 3865 800 0
VCDI 0 0 0 69 490 3234 8470 11313
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-06-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 270 6777 217 1666 410 0 0 0
OW 4 243 76 1171 501 16 0 0
VODI 0 123 10 574 1884 237 0 0
ODI 0 17 3 61 1325 1776 63 0
CDI 0 7 3 74 1042 3358 842 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 608 2731 10809 8968
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 269 6833 234 1990 482 1 0 0
OW 5 201 53 838 534 24 0 0
VODI 0 108 15 524 1670 387 0 0
ODI 0 17 4 117 1404 1338 20 0
CDI 0 8 3 77 1072 3497 783 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 608 2871 10911 8968

Date: 2019-06-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 317 7516 225 1580 333 7 0 0
OW 5 283 76 1044 718 21 0 0
VODI 0 63 12 532 2061 587 0 0
ODI 0 26 1 87 1099 1432 16 0
CDI 0 22 7 104 1153 3106 503 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1088 1901 10638 9303
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 317 7637 243 1866 525 11 0 0
OW 5 184 58 706 708 53 0 0
VODI 0 43 11 563 1786 531 0 0
ODI 0 21 2 103 1174 1113 1 0
CDI 0 25 7 109 1165 3279 523 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1094 2067 10633 9303

Date: 2019-06-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 371 8044 280 1418 305 1 0 0
OW 5 123 69 887 311 11 0 0
VODI 0 28 9 732 1432 30 0 0
ODI 0 19 2 102 2991 1166 0 0
CDI 0 19 6 93 847 4125 371 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 747 3971 10046 7305
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 372 7956 292 1793 787 10 0 0
OW 4 141 44 702 964 118 0 0
VODI 0 50 16 471 2034 544 0 0
ODI 0 28 4 125 1061 930 0 0
CDI 0 58 10 141 956 3386 499 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 831 4316 9918 7305

Date: 2019-06-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 600 8497 254 1209 317 4 0 0
OW 3 178 65 1195 349 14 0 0
VODI 0 109 12 720 2637 119 0 0
ODI 0 58 11 84 1966 741 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 74 1526 3458 655 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1058 6591 9415 3940
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 600 8405 252 1815 891 13 0 0
OW 3 220 56 811 1199 72 0 0
VODI 0 90 19 449 1967 414 0 0
ODI 0 93 7 98 1154 476 0 0
CDI 0 39 10 109 1454 2796 698 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1188 7156 9372 3940

Date: 2019-06-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 822 8788 245 1401 318 7 0 0
OW 0 140 48 1290 750 3 0 0
VODI 0 26 9 515 3097 315 0 0
ODI 0 12 6 59 1285 674 0 0
CDI 0 14 4 72 1852 4145 644 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 736 5966 10557 2066
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 822 8574 237 1903 1638 84 0 0
OW 0 240 42 766 1264 196 0 0
VODI 0 77 14 406 1405 323 0 0
ODI 0 38 8 146 1033 550 0 0
CDI 0 51 11 116 1823 3269 627 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 875 6688 10574 2066


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