Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2019-06-13

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-06-17

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 6 2 8 0 0 8 0
OW 0 10 3 26 7 0 7 0
VODI 0 3 3 63 38 1 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 176 37 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 213 605 190 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 211 2052 17401 15768
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 6 1 27 8 0 17 0
OW 0 2 3 8 28 1 14 0
VODI 0 7 1 21 45 14 19 0
ODI 0 4 3 33 72 50 90 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 235 402 540 22
VCDI 0 0 0 0 257 2228 16946 15746

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 204 5 25 21 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 69 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 171 303 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 604 842 840 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 204 5 25 21 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 34 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 158 303 82 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 649 853 771 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1789 46 365 77 0 0 0
OW 0 72 18 146 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 9 232 178 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 55 491 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 57 541 1573 197 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1034 2874 124
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1751 48 409 106 0 0 0
OW 0 73 13 154 121 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 7 130 299 4 0 0
ODI 0 21 4 56 254 35 0 0
CDI 0 4 1 106 576 1344 94 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1239 2977 124

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 213 1818 19 23 0 0 0 0
OW 12 106 29 110 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 12 216 87 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 414 55 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 143 520 53 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 63 1546 182
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 219 1759 18 31 0 0 0 0
OW 6 106 19 82 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 53 18 124 145 1 0 0
ODI 0 11 3 95 160 59 3 0
CDI 0 0 2 41 334 485 84 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 94 1512 182

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 2 9 8 17 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 30 75 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 338 74 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 97 1983 2100 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 869 1081 417 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 8 11 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 26 33 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 13 64 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 150 56 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 1658 1581 24 0
VCDI 0 0 0 72 1367 1591 451 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 918 43 160 23 0 0 0
OW 0 86 16 129 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 4 164 233 1 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 56 690 169 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 7 614 1395 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 486 66 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 914 40 131 18 0 0 0
OW 0 77 15 146 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 7 137 241 2 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 68 389 109 0 0
CDI 0 1 3 34 901 1179 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 761 66 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1077 60 311 64 2 1 0
OW 0 81 25 297 137 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 385 590 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 1309 293 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 124 1328 52 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 79 98 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1042 50 428 201 9 1 0
OW 0 90 26 245 335 27 0 0
VODI 0 26 9 311 759 142 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 630 646 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 299 813 99 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 71 51 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5516 4019 60 172 23 0 0 0
OW 0 29 23 178 31 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 147 207 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 420 105 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 32 277 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 20 8 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5516 4021 56 250 72 4 0 0
OW 0 27 28 114 82 28 3 0
VODI 0 0 0 133 233 75 13 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 295 121 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 30 186 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 10 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5824 2628 36 237 16 0 0 0
OW 0 5 4 171 66 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 121 291 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 860 69 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 221 1022 85 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5824 2630 37 289 56 0 0 0
OW 0 3 3 164 135 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 76 672 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 394 171 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 197 906 85 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9991 2285 37 239 1 0 0 0
OW 0 17 1 127 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 1 137 62 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 54 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9991 2283 36 276 1 0 0 0
OW 0 20 2 144 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 1 100 66 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 38 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 25 2464 73 371 86 0 0 0
OW 0 33 14 277 74 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 289 280 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 768 155 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 87 781 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 25 2384 70 413 123 0 0 0
OW 0 85 12 190 140 6 0 0
VODI 0 28 5 262 277 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 85 563 194 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 192 713 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 16 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 885 73 666 131 4 0 0
OW 0 34 6 706 173 4 0 0
VODI 0 73 7 349 592 37 0 0
ODI 0 41 5 40 887 352 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 133 2025 409 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 482 472 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 887 73 1228 455 186 0 0
OW 0 23 6 385 537 403 0 0
VODI 0 80 6 104 561 722 152 0
ODI 0 43 5 36 148 383 134 0
CDI 0 0 1 9 135 478 326 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 80 732 269 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15647 3522 54 211 45 0 0 0
OW 0 5 11 88 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 46 108 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 131 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 15 243 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15647 3521 55 241 66 0 0 0
OW 0 6 10 65 68 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 33 72 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 70 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 56 191 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 66 0 0


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