Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-06-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-06-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 204 4738 163 1081 493 37 0 0
OW 6 331 38 604 591 81 1 0
VODI 0 119 29 422 1457 360 18 0
ODI 0 29 16 189 656 741 191 0
CDI 0 54 17 240 888 2059 1027 1
VCDI 0 0 0 19 231 2161 9456 17118
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-06-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 250 4850 158 1214 640 55 0 0
OW 6 290 41 457 1209 73 6 0
VODI 0 130 25 355 1336 297 37 0
ODI 0 36 14 203 696 807 85 0
CDI 0 50 13 249 1277 2390 699 5
VCDI 0 79 1 45 281 3053 7701 16753
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-06-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 240 5355 169 1108 475 9 0 0
OW 8 244 65 675 580 15 1 0
VODI 0 28 11 522 1558 108 5 0
ODI 0 27 3 137 1328 1078 48 0
CDI 0 22 5 71 842 3379 1117 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 309 2393 8486 15445
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-06-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 204 5471 166 1263 385 23 0 0
OW 9 239 59 832 842 24 0 0
VODI 0 47 31 608 1415 421 8 0
ODI 0 76 9 280 941 1119 219 0
CDI 0 17 6 97 1015 3339 984 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 408 2535 7954 14819
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 204 5493 173 1450 546 24 0 0
OW 9 198 51 658 732 34 0 0
VODI 0 67 30 579 1291 504 9 0
ODI 0 82 11 283 957 995 194 0
CDI 0 10 6 110 1083 3282 945 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 397 2622 8017 14819

Date: 2019-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 218 5437 180 1500 403 34 0 0
OW 9 260 40 890 974 63 0 0
VODI 0 107 41 597 1204 987 36 0
ODI 0 85 12 267 999 886 531 0
CDI 0 10 4 101 1464 3166 784 0
VCDI 0 0 0 81 578 3459 9180 11279
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 217 5451 183 1706 605 34 0 0
OW 10 221 38 694 853 149 0 0
VODI 0 137 37 547 1114 1082 127 0
ODI 0 82 13 279 957 564 213 0
CDI 0 8 6 129 1511 3157 756 0
VCDI 0 0 0 81 582 3609 9435 11279

Date: 2019-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 213 5990 203 1415 341 4 0 0
OW 12 241 64 1113 294 4 0 0
VODI 0 95 28 1017 1007 55 0 0
ODI 0 44 5 129 2340 569 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 1235 4931 708 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 605 2583 11124 9437
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 219 5834 202 2064 727 186 0 0
OW 6 267 48 707 746 412 0 0
VODI 0 190 34 539 1122 745 152 0
ODI 0 75 12 268 959 612 137 0
CDI 0 4 4 156 1537 3022 587 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 731 3169 10956 9437

Date: 2019-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 262 6474 198 1682 406 7 0 0
OW 6 215 68 1105 503 5 0 0
VODI 0 129 17 709 1418 196 0 0
ODI 0 15 6 95 1754 1620 74 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 1140 3514 872 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 548 2217 9780 10760
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 264 6096 184 2220 991 390 0 0
OW 4 391 44 441 769 586 18 0
VODI 0 263 44 548 808 529 167 0
ODI 0 61 12 328 1088 522 114 0
CDI 0 22 5 123 1475 3033 1062 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 638 2499 9365 10760

Date: 2019-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 310 7076 214 1675 386 13 0 0
OW 5 281 71 1100 560 23 0 0
VODI 0 88 20 612 2007 404 0 0
ODI 0 22 2 92 1287 1515 42 0
CDI 0 14 5 91 1068 3096 395 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 933 2686 10404 9369
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 310 6612 206 2163 1236 412 0 0
OW 5 496 47 451 728 471 0 0
VODI 0 252 37 570 883 490 23 0
ODI 0 44 12 203 1091 606 88 0
CDI 0 77 10 183 1280 3307 772 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1023 2451 9958 9369


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