Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-06-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 36 3402 130 674 311 70 7 0
OW 6 275 34 611 512 77 6 0
VODI 0 112 18 432 1348 224 9 0
ODI 0 71 17 159 941 368 100 0
CDI 0 28 16 205 1055 2141 767 0
VCDI 0 2 0 89 299 2123 13393 15798
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63 3777 114 840 445 80 7 0
OW 5 331 42 532 660 99 7 0
VODI 0 148 14 338 1242 271 24 0
ODI 0 89 13 176 718 529 157 0
CDI 0 43 19 252 977 2013 1046 0
VCDI 0 18 6 104 294 1726 12040 16607
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-06-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103 4260 144 920 444 69 1 0
OW 6 325 39 534 329 42 4 0
VODI 0 85 25 543 1264 91 7 0
ODI 0 21 7 156 1244 626 31 0
CDI 0 35 10 197 982 2376 773 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 472 2175 10346 17162
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-06-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 160 4676 151 968 480 20 0 0
OW 5 297 44 625 447 70 2 0
VODI 0 108 22 452 1515 236 8 0
ODI 0 24 14 154 845 700 109 0
CDI 0 60 16 239 944 2038 1137 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 204 1855 9062 18163
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 160 4724 156 1012 563 41 0 0
OW 5 256 37 492 342 53 1 0
VODI 0 107 27 523 1464 225 8 0
ODI 0 20 12 171 862 654 121 0
CDI 0 58 15 237 978 2058 1099 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 226 1888 9089 18163

Date: 2019-06-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 230 4780 159 1139 601 48 0 0
OW 6 326 35 506 882 107 7 0
VODI 0 119 24 377 1142 600 60 0
ODI 0 35 11 203 597 723 222 0
CDI 0 46 12 235 900 2121 1072 1
VCDI 0 2 0 26 181 1737 7841 18753
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 230 4821 164 1175 720 81 0 0
OW 6 278 27 432 742 106 7 0
VODI 0 139 28 394 1146 603 50 0
ODI 0 28 11 222 573 656 233 0
CDI 0 39 11 240 932 2079 981 0
VCDI 0 3 0 23 190 1811 7931 18754

Date: 2019-06-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 249 5166 160 1091 402 10 0 0
OW 8 280 59 555 328 12 0 0
VODI 0 56 22 708 1262 66 4 0
ODI 0 24 4 147 1903 660 0 0
CDI 0 29 6 138 968 3627 670 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 241 2654 5844 18513
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 250 5078 172 1328 936 56 0 0
OW 7 232 20 498 1068 83 8 0
VODI 0 149 33 321 939 486 29 0
ODI 0 48 14 227 675 894 112 0
CDI 0 48 12 258 1117 2309 1129 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 369 3201 5240 18513

Date: 2019-06-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 234 5507 162 1105 428 13 0 0
OW 9 233 67 779 725 16 0 0
VODI 0 25 22 607 1463 200 1 0
ODI 0 50 5 246 1127 1095 141 0
CDI 0 30 5 83 974 2975 1330 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 384 2204 9531 14089
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 235 5317 168 1590 1450 47 0 0
OW 8 223 29 396 721 154 1 0
VODI 0 149 35 353 810 703 77 0
ODI 0 76 11 283 711 753 351 0
CDI 0 80 18 198 892 2536 1241 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 517 2310 9333 14090

Date: 2019-06-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 215 5415 156 1399 405 17 0 0
OW 10 252 45 821 905 35 0 0
VODI 0 90 42 596 1287 692 8 0
ODI 0 86 10 299 919 1168 221 0
CDI 0 13 6 105 1158 3339 1110 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 539 2917 8985 12601
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 222 5221 166 2123 1787 107 0 0
OW 3 202 21 307 573 376 13 0
VODI 0 202 26 313 688 977 163 0
ODI 0 165 31 287 560 686 222 0
CDI 0 66 15 190 951 3138 760 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 654 2884 9166 12601


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