Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-06-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76007 18397 354 2063 633 116 7 0
OW 49 656 129 1708 879 166 7 0
VODI 0 225 44 937 2373 428 81 0
ODI 0 136 33 341 1867 1098 485 0
CDI 0 145 33 416 2205 5452 2904 1
VCDI 0 125 19 177 761 4375 26882 34334
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76986 18362 322 2333 747 150 7 0
OW 46 727 130 1330 1133 189 17 0
VODI 0 289 44 820 2271 573 182 0
ODI 0 170 30 382 1622 1478 568 0
CDI 0 253 44 482 2259 5334 3432 0
VCDI 0 78 17 160 801 5352 26110 31818
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-06-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76756 19650 394 2288 713 124 1 0
OW 47 720 143 1370 694 86 8 0
VODI 0 219 56 1137 2386 194 34 0
ODI 0 92 23 352 2713 1208 167 0
CDI 0 59 19 333 2119 7078 2529 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 760 4602 25817 32126
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-06-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77505 20112 400 2240 728 62 0 0
OW 43 584 134 1529 915 125 3 0
VODI 0 238 48 930 2887 471 45 0
ODI 0 94 31 307 1955 1965 385 0
CDI 0 69 21 341 1793 5966 3679 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 494 4539 24073 32311
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77505 20220 424 2431 883 87 0 0
OW 43 483 110 1298 843 117 8 0
VODI 0 225 50 943 2787 508 49 0
ODI 0 96 27 316 1981 2005 456 0
CDI 0 73 23 352 1750 5832 3440 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 528 4579 24232 32311

Date: 2019-06-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77578 20442 443 2549 920 76 3 0
OW 29 577 101 1299 1585 163 14 0
VODI 0 250 49 811 2531 1070 111 0
ODI 0 86 27 354 1586 2526 550 0
CDI 0 47 16 317 1640 5782 4160 1
VCDI 0 2 0 31 458 3727 20261 34876
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77578 20553 458 2735 1177 117 5 0
OW 29 467 88 1090 1424 185 14 0
VODI 0 257 48 807 2452 1123 125 0
ODI 0 85 27 364 1553 2467 597 0
CDI 0 39 15 336 1646 5558 3887 0
VCDI 0 3 0 29 468 3894 20471 34877

Date: 2019-06-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77612 21336 422 2337 578 26 7 0
OW 32 518 138 1408 650 24 2 0
VODI 0 97 48 1354 2425 147 14 0
ODI 0 36 13 323 3777 1348 37 0
CDI 0 60 10 257 2118 9352 2133 0
VCDI 0 18 4 35 550 4789 19124 33889
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77618 21032 443 2960 1474 91 11 0
OW 26 493 71 1092 1836 238 34 0
VODI 0 310 62 707 2263 1244 112 0
ODI 0 122 32 415 1572 2851 613 0
CDI 0 64 20 420 1907 5865 4201 2
VCDI 0 44 7 120 1046 5397 16346 33887

Date: 2019-06-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77935 21583 445 2475 613 24 14 0
OW 29 432 128 1688 1230 30 4 0
VODI 0 92 36 1205 3064 314 19 0
ODI 0 66 16 489 2906 2261 216 0
CDI 0 78 8 782 2608 8015 2711 1
VCDI 0 5 0 271 1266 6967 22378 24644
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77940 21088 438 3385 2166 83 28 0
OW 24 543 75 919 1629 375 25 0
VODI 0 344 62 782 2312 1811 203 0
ODI 0 141 28 580 1576 2390 933 0
CDI 0 134 30 751 2284 6461 2952 13
VCDI 0 6 0 493 1720 6491 21201 24632

Date: 2019-06-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78790 20827 470 2822 564 25 16 0
OW 27 460 119 1801 1577 100 12 0
VODI 0 149 62 1203 3111 918 26 0
ODI 0 93 10 457 3229 2488 280 0
CDI 0 79 7 326 3833 8552 1789 3
VCDI 0 2 0 146 1215 10815 22919 17726
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78802 20477 510 4064 2684 188 30 0
OW 15 468 51 922 1666 625 30 0
VODI 0 331 52 735 2577 2152 265 0
ODI 0 193 39 472 1787 2052 512 0
CDI 0 132 16 368 3030 8137 1635 0
VCDI 0 9 0 194 1785 9744 22570 17729


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