Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-05-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50 2311 69 296 159 32 0 0
OW 8 275 44 512 505 50 2 0
VODI 0 101 13 284 1114 208 24 0
ODI 0 30 12 111 991 461 66 0
CDI 0 19 7 167 1100 1592 626 0
VCDI 0 1 2 35 413 3579 14805 15792
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75 2345 81 496 305 60 0 0
OW 11 209 32 482 681 89 1 0
VODI 0 81 12 229 1198 234 23 0
ODI 0 49 10 103 768 396 66 0
CDI 0 35 14 199 1103 1720 1114 10
VCDI 0 0 0 32 441 3551 13364 16247
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65 2722 106 603 188 40 1 0
OW 10 216 26 566 403 35 5 0
VODI 0 70 18 466 1024 86 3 0
ODI 0 28 14 149 1528 450 37 0
CDI 0 9 4 163 1152 2175 468 30
VCDI 0 0 0 31 320 2414 11699 18542
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 37 3187 121 650 251 49 2 0
OW 6 253 35 639 495 40 5 0
VODI 0 107 19 478 1239 182 6 0
ODI 0 55 19 159 1061 366 81 0
CDI 0 28 14 207 1102 2028 721 1
VCDI 0 2 0 80 328 1920 12164 17729
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 37 3204 132 885 379 50 2 0
OW 6 216 23 454 381 38 4 0
VODI 0 126 19 425 1071 140 7 0
ODI 0 55 16 155 1185 408 61 0
CDI 0 24 15 204 1124 2051 774 2
VCDI 0 7 3 90 336 1898 12131 17728

Date: 2019-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52 3623 119 729 419 69 6 0
OW 5 287 50 574 575 87 7 0
VODI 0 129 17 424 1258 284 6 0
ODI 0 76 15 167 814 450 110 0
CDI 0 33 21 226 1013 2091 864 0
VCDI 0 6 4 101 299 2076 12671 16109
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52 3674 139 932 499 90 9 0
OW 5 221 30 408 544 70 4 0
VODI 0 148 17 386 1017 241 8 0
ODI 0 68 16 162 997 483 105 0
CDI 0 31 17 227 1021 2161 888 0
VCDI 0 12 7 106 300 2012 12650 16109

Date: 2019-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87 3975 102 774 317 57 0 0
OW 5 444 55 562 273 45 3 0
VODI 0 118 34 600 891 59 7 0
ODI 0 20 12 183 1810 418 12 0
CDI 0 25 10 209 914 2619 513 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 150 1578 13042 15941
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87 3969 120 1102 631 119 4 0
OW 5 271 23 393 606 83 4 0
VODI 0 167 17 307 1217 286 37 0
ODI 0 92 26 154 647 530 186 0
CDI 0 63 21 266 976 2052 1321 0
VCDI 0 20 6 108 278 1706 12025 15941

Date: 2019-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123 4443 151 983 452 57 0 0
OW 5 289 36 583 416 55 3 0
VODI 0 99 21 461 1440 185 7 0
ODI 0 20 9 164 977 687 40 0
CDI 0 49 13 214 968 2298 904 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 161 2051 11491 15991
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123 4228 155 1273 826 130 6 0
OW 5 266 13 346 631 127 19 0
VODI 0 193 17 247 1125 365 70 0
ODI 0 116 16 199 521 645 287 0
CDI 0 86 24 292 1068 1996 1490 0
VCDI 0 11 5 68 243 2070 10573 15991

Date: 2019-06-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 204 4738 163 1081 493 37 0 0
OW 6 331 38 604 591 81 1 0
VODI 0 119 29 422 1457 360 18 0
ODI 0 29 16 189 656 741 191 0
CDI 0 54 17 240 888 2059 1027 1
VCDI 0 0 0 19 231 2161 9456 17118
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 205 4516 172 1461 998 117 18 0
OW 5 277 17 319 652 225 20 0
VODI 0 237 17 169 905 488 148 0
ODI 0 139 24 189 445 596 407 0
CDI 0 102 33 389 1073 1879 1327 3
VCDI 0 0 0 28 243 2134 8773 17116


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