Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-05-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 37 988 33 184 60 9 0 0
OW 6 224 31 221 201 62 19 0
VODI 0 83 21 262 712 293 45 0
ODI 0 47 12 171 750 408 28 0
CDI 0 1 2 114 1197 1905 353 155
VCDI 0 0 0 23 351 4363 15596 16899
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50 1177 32 215 72 31 3 0
OW 8 326 30 222 292 104 43 0
VODI 0 182 25 378 658 384 37 0
ODI 0 56 20 228 664 509 54 0
CDI 0 5 6 210 1211 1804 554 1
VCDI 0 0 0 54 505 3343 15816 16557
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 37 1684 55 253 65 24 1 0
OW 7 395 59 344 133 63 9 0
VODI 0 108 30 495 722 134 9 0
ODI 0 19 8 143 1121 633 40 0
CDI 0 10 5 105 1044 2330 615 0
VCDI 0 11 4 38 227 2084 15445 17357
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 42 2183 64 228 115 15 0 0
OW 7 330 56 405 419 42 1 0
VODI 0 92 23 338 1034 185 11 0
ODI 0 24 9 119 1041 577 58 0
CDI 0 20 8 142 1094 1740 719 0
VCDI 0 7 1 32 353 3058 16691 14583
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 42 2171 80 327 215 31 0 0
OW 7 316 39 372 423 30 0 0
VODI 0 116 24 257 975 188 7 0
ODI 0 26 7 143 1026 648 71 0
CDI 0 27 10 141 1067 1708 716 1
VCDI 0 0 1 24 350 3012 16686 14582

Date: 2019-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55 2331 75 436 222 40 0 0
OW 8 231 33 485 643 74 0 0
VODI 0 103 11 207 1179 261 24 0
ODI 0 50 10 78 773 479 72 0
CDI 0 25 14 157 1089 1554 855 15
VCDI 0 0 0 27 439 3680 13643 16488
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55 2309 81 539 446 57 0 0
OW 8 245 26 408 605 85 0 0
VODI 0 101 14 177 1062 260 29 0
ODI 0 52 8 89 722 542 51 0
CDI 0 33 14 155 1025 1553 845 16
VCDI 0 0 0 22 485 3591 13669 16487

Date: 2019-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66 2470 94 484 135 26 1 0
OW 10 200 25 476 373 50 1 0
VODI 0 90 26 461 920 56 3 0
ODI 0 10 9 169 1838 483 29 0
CDI 0 1 2 116 1105 2474 381 27
VCDI 0 0 0 7 199 2231 13305 17513
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66 2380 95 759 738 85 1 0
OW 10 189 20 360 606 105 3 0
VODI 0 100 11 216 934 203 30 0
ODI 0 57 10 112 689 594 59 0
CDI 0 45 20 204 1106 1628 1270 55
VCDI 0 0 0 62 497 2705 12357 17485

Date: 2019-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 39 3003 105 620 240 28 2 0
OW 6 229 30 639 428 31 5 0
VODI 0 78 18 497 1138 112 9 0
ODI 0 54 18 156 1269 356 51 0
CDI 0 29 11 201 1194 2026 542 7
VCDI 0 2 1 73 353 2054 14706 15506
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 39 2758 99 982 852 74 3 0
OW 6 251 20 377 484 86 5 0
VODI 0 146 20 293 781 122 23 0
ODI 0 93 11 156 820 558 128 2
CDI 0 104 18 262 1211 1626 1079 80
VCDI 0 43 15 116 474 2141 14077 15431

Date: 2019-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 36 3402 130 674 311 70 7 0
OW 6 275 34 611 512 77 6 0
VODI 0 112 18 432 1348 224 9 0
ODI 0 71 17 159 941 368 100 0
CDI 0 28 16 205 1055 2141 767 0
VCDI 0 2 0 89 299 2123 13393 15798
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 37 3141 130 1016 968 198 9 0
OW 5 281 22 331 451 88 8 0
VODI 0 193 11 247 783 154 52 0
ODI 0 114 15 170 778 801 195 0
CDI 0 121 25 275 1129 1630 1066 1
VCDI 0 40 12 131 357 2132 12952 15797


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