Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2019-05-16

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-05-20

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 17 0 0 13 55 6 0
OW 0 13 1 0 3 12 6 0
VODI 0 11 0 0 1 21 15 0
ODI 0 6 4 16 6 23 44 0
CDI 0 4 3 30 163 287 163 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 73 856 12267 22783
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 7 0 0 16 71 11 0
OW 0 12 1 0 1 22 32 0
VODI 0 12 0 0 0 29 72 0
ODI 0 11 0 0 1 26 77 0
CDI 0 9 6 29 106 216 174 0
VCDI 0 0 1 17 135 890 12135 22783

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 169 5 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 6 8 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 1 16 0 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 7 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 35 44 43 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 94 1329 1323
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 39 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 61 4 9 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 68 0 5 0 9 0 0
ODI 0 24 4 7 1 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 15 37 51 136 2
VCDI 0 0 0 1 4 89 1236 1321

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 167 16 102 19 0 0 0
OW 0 121 12 89 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 50 12 266 89 5 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 92 500 141 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 58 572 879 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 53 743 3478 2461
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 117 16 110 26 0 0 0
OW 0 88 5 49 21 1 0 0
VODI 0 93 8 122 46 20 0 0
ODI 0 36 8 151 277 150 0 0
CDI 0 4 4 153 758 588 5 0
VCDI 0 7 3 56 116 1009 3474 2461

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 40 895 8 19 1 0 0 0
OW 7 195 15 18 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 18 107 36 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 51 74 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 154 106 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 45 366 3139 259
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 40 911 9 24 0 0 0 0
OW 7 109 7 11 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 91 8 37 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 39 14 51 34 8 3 0
CDI 0 7 5 89 147 59 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 110 408 3104 259

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 39 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 106 817 4625 1648
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 9 97 26
VCDI 0 0 0 0 106 819 4547 1622

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 29 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 42 36 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 315 753 2159 1967
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 12 26 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 372 778 2159 1967

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 215 7 13 2 0 0 0
OW 0 79 10 54 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 2 107 163 14 0 0
ODI 0 25 8 37 270 61 3 0
CDI 0 1 1 92 323 420 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 88 826 3239 159
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 207 11 57 24 0 0 0
OW 0 40 3 30 47 3 0 0
VODI 0 41 2 51 126 38 7 0
ODI 0 36 0 38 158 110 33 0
CDI 0 39 11 82 310 251 97 0
VCDI 0 1 1 50 194 919 3155 159

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5402 3233 43 129 23 0 0 0
OW 0 57 19 202 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 4 235 332 4 0 0
ODI 0 9 0 20 579 24 0 0
CDI 0 5 1 16 134 333 153 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 72 266 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5402 3145 41 150 25 0 0 0
OW 0 84 14 162 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 39 6 120 169 8 0 0
ODI 0 28 2 40 242 35 2 0
CDI 0 21 3 71 514 182 162 0
VCDI 0 2 1 59 90 208 255 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5758 2895 22 216 64 0 0 0
OW 0 24 6 78 93 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 62 125 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 154 153 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 108 1283 68 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 223 326 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5758 2902 26 271 165 2 0 0
OW 0 14 2 45 105 34 0 0
VODI 0 3 0 35 92 311 34 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 67 221 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 103 780 61 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 333 290 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8817 3419 51 202 94 4 0 0
OW 0 11 6 32 79 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 49 39 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 13 42 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 19 78 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8817 3430 57 234 186 32 1 0
OW 0 0 0 0 45 54 25 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 4 23 60 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 891 17 29 1 0 0 0
OW 0 124 24 147 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 3 235 290 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 675 102 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 109 854 244 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 80 1690 269
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 933 26 106 50 0 0 0
OW 0 80 8 123 126 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 10 165 424 87 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 400 258 49 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 84 655 696 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 38 1188 266

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 81 29 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 44 39 28 4 0
VODI 0 0 0 52 174 78 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 280 191 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 256 1286 152 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 803 4389 663
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 92 55 40 2 0
OW 0 0 0 38 129 111 9 0
VODI 0 0 0 25 192 245 29 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 82 243 48 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 234 725 290 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 103 1022 4183 663

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12478 4571 54 409 247 36 1 0
OW 0 4 11 190 114 34 5 0
VODI 0 0 0 125 316 70 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 341 149 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 22 284 69 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 17 630 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12478 4575 63 587 452 86 11 0
OW 0 0 2 98 236 101 20 0
VODI 0 0 0 40 251 205 43 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 94 158 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 33 248 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 380 0


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