Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-05-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71506 15585 223 1088 598 118 18 0
OW 61 102 22 368 406 119 53 0
VODI 0 16 8 234 566 290 101 0
ODI 0 12 2 55 589 498 190 0
CDI 0 12 4 12 460 1890 286 0
VCDI 0 29 9 65 263 2315 5019 5908
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71810 15502 207 1239 711 117 20 0
OW 60 116 23 279 432 170 26 0
VODI 0 30 8 222 532 376 138 0
ODI 0 11 5 61 574 471 192 0
CDI 0 10 3 14 485 2035 593 22
VCDI 0 13 5 52 196 1603 4696 6041
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73538 14611 192 1010 476 97 15 0
OW 60 108 28 382 332 67 21 0
VODI 0 34 7 257 703 158 18 0
ODI 0 9 3 37 783 601 121 0
CDI 0 7 3 18 585 2463 576 0
VCDI 0 3 1 60 362 1146 4838 5370
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74046 14323 181 1072 594 79 1 0
OW 58 99 37 386 414 107 1 0
VODI 0 16 4 270 742 305 18 0
ODI 0 18 2 40 681 785 150 0
CDI 0 14 4 25 613 2020 491 0
VCDI 0 15 6 72 369 1279 5246 4517
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74046 14301 186 1117 699 110 2 0
OW 58 112 26 313 407 112 0 0
VODI 0 28 10 278 666 310 20 0
ODI 0 15 3 59 631 792 145 0
CDI 0 14 3 27 630 1933 448 0
VCDI 0 15 6 71 380 1318 5292 4517

Date: 2019-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73879 14570 181 1142 691 94 0 0
OW 52 86 39 476 434 141 0 0
VODI 0 21 4 230 638 496 61 0
ODI 0 19 1 47 621 761 129 0
CDI 0 25 2 63 748 1713 827 0
VCDI 0 18 7 103 231 1019 4198 5333
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73879 14524 180 1275 800 132 0 0
OW 52 122 36 304 395 140 0 0
VODI 0 34 8 255 620 480 67 0
ODI 0 21 2 60 580 761 130 0
CDI 0 22 3 57 716 1620 795 0
VCDI 0 16 5 110 252 1091 4223 5333

Date: 2019-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74183 14556 169 920 410 90 6 0
OW 52 162 53 558 285 36 6 0
VODI 0 26 4 450 835 125 17 0
ODI 0 15 4 35 1297 367 62 0
CDI 0 9 4 45 422 2575 583 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 45 572 4847 5275
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74184 14528 187 1208 803 175 12 0
OW 51 151 24 306 385 168 57 0
VODI 0 36 13 272 590 517 167 0
ODI 0 21 0 63 583 524 179 0
CDI 0 30 8 83 743 1595 1000 0
VCDI 0 2 2 76 190 786 4106 5275

Date: 2019-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74872 14046 182 1063 427 94 0 0
OW 51 108 42 659 402 59 2 0
VODI 0 24 4 350 964 234 14 0
ODI 0 18 3 28 910 432 283 0
CDI 0 3 6 54 520 1952 885 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 62 698 4434 5215
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74873 13939 188 1244 907 247 7 0
OW 50 159 24 332 310 249 66 0
VODI 0 41 11 305 621 309 343 0
ODI 0 31 2 73 633 389 226 0
CDI 0 29 12 170 678 1511 1162 0
VCDI 0 0 0 30 136 764 3814 5215

Date: 2019-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73749 15018 220 1208 462 108 1 0
OW 50 166 39 682 503 104 0 0
VODI 0 33 7 337 998 334 20 0
ODI 0 10 4 39 665 580 317 0
CDI 0 1 3 73 458 2059 838 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 79 587 3801 5543
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73749 14946 219 1473 969 398 17 0
OW 50 147 28 331 308 269 74 0
VODI 0 57 9 202 703 414 285 0
ODI 0 37 4 146 566 437 218 0
CDI 0 41 13 171 522 1593 1108 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 97 661 3275 5543


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