Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-05-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 514 30 244 14 2 0 0
OW 0 115 8 155 66 41 1 0
VODI 0 24 9 190 183 137 16 0
ODI 0 1 1 83 360 230 86 0
CDI 0 0 0 89 747 1540 421 76
VCDI 0 0 0 20 501 3602 14146 22214
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 620 10 126 31 2 0 0
OW 0 137 13 102 109 38 22 0
VODI 0 52 15 170 302 137 29 0
ODI 0 4 1 135 590 304 35 3
CDI 0 0 0 149 1042 1396 472 17
VCDI 0 0 0 20 649 3685 14313 21135
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5 761 17 116 39 2 0 0
OW 2 192 29 228 109 18 3 0
VODI 0 8 5 240 496 70 18 0
ODI 0 14 4 113 888 422 48 0
CDI 0 1 1 51 1058 2444 256 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 233 3652 14630 19684
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 37 937 23 148 59 4 0 0
OW 6 215 41 210 144 55 5 0
VODI 0 47 16 284 617 245 16 0
ODI 0 33 9 172 820 447 26 3
CDI 0 0 1 82 1113 1986 386 17
VCDI 0 0 0 10 310 4791 16744 15807
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 37 1041 34 175 51 5 0 0
OW 6 108 30 204 148 81 2 0
VODI 0 48 15 250 637 194 17 0
ODI 0 35 10 158 815 496 28 3
CDI 0 0 1 108 1094 2095 355 4
VCDI 0 0 0 11 318 4657 16775 15820

Date: 2019-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53 1093 24 170 63 21 0 0
OW 9 285 32 200 270 79 32 0
VODI 0 144 29 304 687 344 42 0
ODI 0 51 14 212 700 436 38 0
CDI 0 0 4 159 1224 1902 386 61
VCDI 0 0 0 38 476 4053 15816 16415
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53 1193 35 210 76 30 4 0
OW 9 160 20 195 283 98 18 0
VODI 0 151 26 245 691 281 52 0
ODI 0 66 17 215 699 571 33 0
CDI 0 3 5 183 1223 1860 391 5
VCDI 0 0 0 35 448 3995 15816 16471

Date: 2019-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 40 1451 40 229 58 5 1 0
OW 7 392 46 245 76 43 9 0
VODI 0 122 32 635 571 121 14 0
ODI 0 3 4 161 1325 473 29 0
CDI 0 5 2 81 1091 2751 392 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 171 2207 15757 17243
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 40 1331 46 321 149 56 13 0
OW 7 273 19 229 327 155 29 0
VODI 0 252 19 275 600 420 72 0
ODI 0 99 26 234 615 581 71 0
CDI 0 11 11 263 1212 1678 809 5
VCDI 0 7 3 63 389 2710 15208 17238

Date: 2019-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 37 1906 63 237 94 19 0 0
OW 7 432 56 402 219 59 0 0
VODI 0 78 25 429 855 156 9 0
ODI 0 20 6 145 1065 712 44 0
CDI 0 14 5 118 1018 2036 624 3
VCDI 0 5 3 41 315 2441 15319 16849
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 37 1580 65 376 253 76 0 0
OW 7 347 22 261 453 185 27 0
VODI 0 318 18 214 715 450 36 0
ODI 0 143 30 202 530 511 111 0
CDI 0 41 16 243 1156 1651 974 6
VCDI 0 26 7 76 459 2550 14848 16846

Date: 2019-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50 2311 69 296 159 32 0 0
OW 8 275 44 512 505 50 2 0
VODI 0 101 13 284 1114 208 24 0
ODI 0 30 12 111 991 461 66 0
CDI 0 19 7 167 1100 1592 626 0
VCDI 0 1 2 35 413 3579 14805 15792
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 50 1887 66 438 593 92 2 0
OW 8 325 19 330 622 200 19 0
VODI 0 310 18 201 713 246 15 0
ODI 0 141 23 147 677 381 86 0
CDI 0 64 18 212 1140 1529 856 1
VCDI 0 10 3 77 537 3474 14545 15791


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