Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-05-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-05-10:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71506 16344 270 1434 630 120 18 0 OW 61 271 37 607 502 164 54 0 VODI 0 55 24 525 850 442 127 0 ODI 0 27 5 226 1044 781 306 2 CDI 0 32 13 255 1469 3603 952 133 VCDI 0 81 16 177 1420 8483 32597 41385	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-12:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71811 16380 235 1444 772 120 20 0 OW 60 324 41 427 571 214 48 0 VODI 0 94 25 448 940 559 174 0 ODI 0 24 9 249 1263 851 267 5 CDI 0 22 9 305 1717 3700 1449 75 VCDI 0 64 13 170 1585 7739 32274 40551	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-14:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73543 15733 225 1180 551 99 15 0 OW 62 351 68 656 464 85 24 0 VODI 0 65 14 558 1264 272 37 0 ODI 0 44 10 182 1779 1141 175 0 CDI 0 8 7 136 1882 5336 984 9 VCDI 0 3 1 119 978 6962 31982 40044	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-16:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 74088 15728 213 1275 680 83 1 0 OW 64 393 87 620 572 162 6 0 VODI 0 108 26 604 1410 575 34 0 ODI 0 80 17 248 1652 1322 184 3 CDI 0 19 8 173 2002 4482 932 17 VCDI 0 15 6 82 1168 9030 34659 34220	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 74088 15824 231 1361 779 115 2 0 OW 64 280 63 539 572 193 2 0 VODI 0 123 30 566 1354 526 37 0 ODI 0 79 19 247 1586 1382 186 3 CDI 0 22 8 207 1982 4475 873 4 VCDI 0 15 6 82 1211 8963 34716 34233

Date: 2019-05-18:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73953 16187 217 1356 777 115 0 0 OW 61 463 80 699 717 221 32 0 VODI 0 233 38 587 1406 874 106 0 ODI 0 126 20 289 1484 1339 180 0 CDI 0 34 13 325 2222 4006 1265 61 VCDI 0 18 7 165 1265 7855 33188 35064	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73953 16251 231 1551 902 162 4 0 OW 61 354 62 515 696 238 18 0 VODI 0 260 37 537 1392 803 126 0 ODI 0 136 24 306 1421 1481 179 0 CDI 0 44 16 347 2182 3811 1248 5 VCDI 0 16 5 165 1278 7915 33196 35120

Date: 2019-05-20:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 74242 16533 223 1206 493 95 7 0 OW 59 646 110 862 377 79 15 0 VODI 0 194 40 1205 1575 260 31 0 ODI 0 43 16 243 2928 926 94 0 CDI 0 15 7 219 1918 5842 1065 0 VCDI 0 0 0 39 703 5650 37556 31532	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 74243 16327 251 1631 999 231 25 0 OW 58 488 46 565 763 326 86 0 VODI 0 352 34 600 1320 975 246 0 ODI 0 174 28 344 1358 1225 301 0 CDI 0 80 31 445 2312 3575 2004 31 VCDI 0 10 6 189 1242 6520 36106 31501

Date: 2019-05-22:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 74925 16468 254 1370 537 113 0 0 OW 58 606 110 1153 662 119 2 0 VODI 0 135 33 878 2013 403 24 0 ODI 0 59 14 212 2296 1235 345 0 CDI 0 27 17 264 2055 4589 1663 15 VCDI 0 5 3 63 1029 5767 34313 33214	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 74926 15955 268 1737 1220 324 7 0 OW 57 563 48 631 807 436 93 0 VODI 0 413 30 567 1479 798 389 0 ODI 0 224 38 316 1356 995 424 27 CDI 0 116 38 512 2239 3583 2410 68 VCDI 0 29 9 177 1491 6090 33024 33134

Date: 2019-05-24:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73812 17837 299 1582 643 140 1 0 OW 58 491 92 1318 1061 158 2 0 VODI 0 163 25 738 2334 565 47 0 ODI 0 78 21 230 1962 1146 431 5 CDI 0 57 18 385 2117 4228 1767 41 VCDI 0 74 30 238 1103 7260 29775 34716	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73812 17237 300 2026 1633 494 19 0 OW 58 531 49 695 977 478 93 0 VODI 0 418 28 478 1533 714 321 0 ODI 0 224 30 360 1473 961 399 5 CDI 0 176 44 518 2133 3626 2482 45 VCDI 0 114 34 414 1471 7224 28709 34712

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