Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-05-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70703 15338 268 1264 802 197 3 0
OW 62 100 33 388 333 213 44 0
VODI 0 18 2 200 500 336 103 0
ODI 0 4 3 41 444 593 115 0
CDI 0 14 2 23 324 1076 451 0
VCDI 0 39 4 68 264 3297 6858 4573
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70882 15462 259 1205 794 145 21 0
OW 59 125 27 384 349 212 59 0
VODI 0 26 5 253 487 342 104 0
ODI 0 6 4 97 434 522 127 0
CDI 0 14 2 40 395 946 353 0
VCDI 0 44 9 63 325 3126 5765 5628
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70943 15469 253 1303 673 147 8 0
OW 63 18 13 414 395 117 38 0
VODI 0 14 4 157 667 222 28 0
ODI 0 11 1 29 620 620 116 0
CDI 0 12 2 17 390 1601 427 0
VCDI 0 30 8 56 140 2696 8192 3186
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71347 15619 237 1136 551 103 10 0
OW 61 83 27 431 398 91 26 0
VODI 0 16 5 245 619 248 52 0
ODI 0 10 2 64 649 509 171 0
CDI 0 10 3 22 489 1755 221 0
VCDI 0 23 6 61 212 2706 5006 5876
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71347 15642 244 1230 633 137 23 0
OW 61 59 18 349 388 75 19 0
VODI 0 22 7 242 585 266 78 0
ODI 0 11 2 60 618 486 153 0
CDI 0 5 3 20 497 1894 379 0
VCDI 0 22 6 58 197 2554 4834 5876

Date: 2019-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71524 15572 217 1202 675 107 24 0
OW 61 103 25 321 442 128 34 0
VODI 0 20 7 243 534 329 115 0
ODI 0 11 2 65 594 479 185 0
CDI 0 11 3 16 501 2017 353 10
VCDI 0 14 7 63 185 2020 4838 6043
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71524 15606 228 1308 814 157 37 0
OW 61 68 14 254 370 120 28 0
VODI 0 25 8 229 534 316 151 0
ODI 0 11 2 46 568 486 150 0
CDI 0 10 3 15 469 2023 557 5
VCDI 0 11 6 58 176 1978 4626 6048

Date: 2019-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72736 15082 206 1013 469 103 3 0
OW 60 111 29 372 295 53 18 0
VODI 0 55 6 275 653 122 27 0
ODI 0 6 2 28 887 388 102 0
CDI 0 6 3 20 405 2982 506 10
VCDI 0 4 2 53 241 1002 4971 5794
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72736 15022 208 1147 777 203 34 0
OW 60 150 22 240 330 182 41 0
VODI 0 66 11 255 537 365 209 0
ODI 0 9 0 35 570 457 134 0
CDI 0 7 2 15 455 2152 921 29
VCDI 0 10 5 69 281 1291 4288 5775

Date: 2019-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74510 13819 178 972 548 98 15 0
OW 59 142 35 337 371 84 24 0
VODI 0 25 5 306 698 216 35 0
ODI 0 13 2 45 641 809 187 0
CDI 0 13 4 21 711 1968 609 0
VCDI 0 16 4 78 427 1168 5235 4672
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74511 13691 167 999 885 257 60 0
OW 58 188 30 185 334 212 111 0
VODI 0 86 19 334 482 425 152 0
ODI 0 11 1 107 479 499 113 0
CDI 0 17 2 39 707 1932 1073 0
VCDI 0 35 9 95 509 1018 4596 4672

Date: 2019-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73849 14494 181 1151 655 94 0 0
OW 55 89 42 435 440 109 0 0
VODI 0 19 3 220 720 434 16 0
ODI 0 19 3 46 642 834 92 0
CDI 0 19 2 37 687 1933 492 0
VCDI 0 13 5 85 320 1360 4813 4692
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73850 14282 164 1137 1010 345 5 0
OW 54 219 34 266 286 321 42 0
VODI 0 71 21 304 459 480 69 0
ODI 0 21 6 101 548 508 162 0
CDI 0 31 4 61 710 1929 972 0
VCDI 0 29 7 105 451 1181 4163 4692


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