Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-05-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 111 15 173 91 0 0 0
OW 0 16 3 129 144 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 3 127 202 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 71 202 184 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 285 738 290 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 486 4579 21616 16308
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 172 24 220 82 0 0 0
OW 0 53 10 152 91 1 0 0
VODI 0 34 6 141 160 60 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 88 251 159 41 0
CDI 0 0 0 80 478 780 406 4
VCDI 0 0 0 29 609 3905 19956 17870
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 314 20 322 83 0 0 0
OW 0 94 18 181 52 2 0 0
VODI 0 3 3 181 190 62 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 44 394 233 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 64 802 1424 138 10
VCDI 0 0 0 4 426 3719 15471 21610
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 455 37 273 19 1 0 0
OW 0 133 10 132 70 31 0 0
VODI 0 27 21 172 198 104 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 95 353 253 67 0
CDI 0 0 0 92 827 1390 329 60
VCDI 0 0 0 17 486 3625 13738 22844
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 517 43 303 19 0 0 0
OW 0 62 8 105 72 25 0 0
VODI 0 36 17 146 205 96 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 118 342 305 85 0
CDI 0 0 0 97 812 1314 335 63
VCDI 0 0 0 12 503 3664 13715 22841

Date: 2019-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 588 27 161 23 1 0 0
OW 0 122 11 133 90 34 13 0
VODI 0 21 9 195 222 138 17 0
ODI 0 5 1 85 433 285 44 0
CDI 0 0 0 82 908 1551 427 44
VCDI 0 0 0 20 596 3573 13480 22527
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 654 31 183 21 0 0 0
OW 0 63 12 120 89 31 8 0
VODI 0 17 4 172 237 143 15 0
ODI 0 2 1 105 418 323 61 0
CDI 0 0 0 85 859 1531 431 48
VCDI 0 0 0 11 648 3554 13466 22523

Date: 2019-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4 660 10 102 28 0 0 0
OW 2 175 22 166 81 12 0 0
VODI 0 15 7 289 447 41 10 0
ODI 0 12 5 92 1003 267 33 0
CDI 0 4 2 50 1082 2483 274 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 172 2661 14534 21117
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4 683 12 131 55 5 5 0
OW 2 93 8 83 132 54 24 0
VODI 0 57 10 160 354 196 28 0
ODI 0 15 8 158 668 294 58 4
CDI 0 18 8 147 914 1391 605 84
VCDI 0 0 0 20 690 3524 14131 21033

Date: 2019-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 28 887 16 120 43 1 0 0
OW 4 175 42 269 104 26 2 0
VODI 0 26 10 240 560 136 19 0
ODI 0 22 13 145 844 471 25 3
CDI 0 0 0 68 1033 2265 295 31
VCDI 0 0 0 0 306 4061 14129 19447
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 28 798 17 101 69 33 33 0
OW 4 122 11 121 132 94 1 0
VODI 0 121 17 170 426 221 2 0
ODI 0 28 19 204 655 276 40 11
CDI 0 41 17 216 942 1713 604 161
VCDI 0 0 0 30 666 4623 13790 19309

Date: 2019-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 37 988 33 184 60 9 0 0
OW 6 224 31 221 201 62 19 0
VODI 0 83 21 262 712 293 45 0
ODI 0 47 12 171 750 408 28 0
CDI 0 1 2 114 1197 1905 353 155
VCDI 0 0 0 23 351 4363 15596 16899
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 37 924 20 127 87 57 58 0
OW 6 137 17 130 231 112 4 0
VODI 0 117 30 192 653 258 8 0
ODI 0 81 13 190 510 337 95 0
CDI 0 84 19 222 929 1783 625 100
VCDI 0 0 0 114 861 4493 15251 16954


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