Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-05-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70703 15548 285 1447 917 198 3 0
OW 62 125 41 547 506 219 44 0
VODI 0 40 6 354 790 378 104 0
ODI 0 4 4 175 746 869 155 2
CDI 0 14 2 53 781 2037 899 108
VCDI 0 39 4 68 1151 9537 42076 36007
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70882 15732 288 1454 891 145 21 0
OW 59 182 39 555 488 213 59 0
VODI 0 65 12 428 709 409 109 0
ODI 0 9 10 282 800 726 188 0
CDI 0 14 2 158 1176 1903 934 55
VCDI 0 44 9 100 1416 8920 38100 39462
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70943 15933 289 1731 783 147 8 0
OW 63 113 32 645 524 123 38 0
VODI 0 37 14 444 988 295 38 0
ODI 0 24 4 126 1114 891 141 3
CDI 0 26 12 201 1416 3233 733 61
VCDI 0 53 17 185 908 8177 37695 38840
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71347 16253 290 1537 596 104 10 0
OW 61 225 39 670 518 125 26 0
VODI 0 63 31 504 934 364 74 0
ODI 0 15 3 242 1092 814 261 8
CDI 0 41 11 248 1551 3405 796 117
VCDI 0 78 14 197 1172 8399 33459 41354
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71347 16338 305 1678 688 137 23 0
OW 61 128 26 545 514 104 19 0
VODI 0 80 29 475 901 372 97 0
ODI 0 16 4 256 1049 857 261 11
CDI 0 34 10 238 1529 3444 965 126
VCDI 0 79 14 206 1182 8297 33261 41342

Date: 2019-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71524 16436 267 1436 723 109 24 0
OW 61 295 43 507 562 167 47 0
VODI 0 52 21 494 894 493 141 0
ODI 0 26 6 209 1128 832 258 1
CDI 0 24 9 219 1661 3839 1079 99
VCDI 0 59 14 154 1497 8330 31419 41889
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71524 16542 284 1581 860 159 37 0
OW 61 197 31 414 483 156 36 0
VODI 0 50 17 452 922 474 174 0
ODI 0 22 6 206 1089 901 241 0
CDI 0 24 9 222 1525 3795 1295 103
VCDI 0 57 13 144 1586 8285 31185 41886

Date: 2019-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72740 16071 228 1179 529 103 3 0
OW 62 336 59 586 397 65 18 0
VODI 0 90 18 632 1204 173 38 0
ODI 0 36 14 164 2091 741 146 0
CDI 0 34 10 164 1831 5901 917 14
VCDI 0 15 4 100 907 5745 31997 41686
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72740 16008 232 1359 874 208 39 0
OW 62 273 36 350 494 236 65 0
VODI 0 149 24 443 999 591 241 0
ODI 0 50 12 213 1322 866 247 5
CDI 0 57 18 263 1521 3777 1891 158
VCDI 0 45 11 197 1749 7050 30636 41537

Date: 2019-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74541 15112 207 1155 620 99 15 0
OW 63 389 86 631 492 110 26 0
VODI 0 83 23 602 1328 373 54 0
ODI 0 60 17 221 1624 1359 219 3
CDI 0 16 7 152 1980 4678 1001 31
VCDI 0 16 4 96 1139 7627 33098 37691
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74542 14833 200 1184 991 290 93 0
OW 62 355 47 331 490 307 112 0
VODI 0 257 38 529 973 684 161 0
ODI 0 92 21 318 1195 863 190 11
CDI 0 104 29 341 1797 3932 1904 199
VCDI 0 35 9 154 1737 8170 31953 37515

Date: 2019-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73902 16007 226 1375 736 103 0 0
OW 61 413 78 674 657 171 19 0
VODI 0 161 32 543 1473 748 62 0
ODI 0 105 18 262 1527 1366 144 0
CDI 0 25 8 249 2121 4282 942 155
VCDI 0 13 5 109 1258 8628 33093 35297
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73903 15602 198 1309 1121 402 63 0
OW 60 451 53 407 532 438 46 0
VODI 0 291 59 533 1134 763 86 0
ODI 0 157 20 318 1136 929 306 0
CDI 0 192 29 350 1819 4039 1893 141
VCDI 0 31 8 295 2030 8727 31866 35311


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