Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-05-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-04-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71432 14273 235 1133 682 111 3 0
OW 71 125 43 424 444 182 12 0
VODI 0 14 1 193 792 300 36 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 401 451 54 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 319 1326 353 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 100 2413 7366 5761
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71075 14682 261 1314 775 183 2 0
OW 71 92 30 377 593 194 9 0
VODI 0 0 2 159 619 347 35 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 385 537 62 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 335 1334 262 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 150 2200 7286 5676
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71376 14686 265 1316 659 130 0 0
OW 68 46 22 489 458 104 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 134 694 263 16 0
ODI 0 2 3 31 463 621 45 0
CDI 0 7 1 31 280 1313 192 0
VCDI 0 5 0 43 140 2941 6925 5330
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71228 14825 269 1291 774 143 1 0
OW 64 131 33 369 397 175 24 0
VODI 0 9 3 213 520 302 80 0
ODI 0 7 2 39 467 550 102 0
CDI 0 15 2 36 286 1007 403 0
VCDI 0 33 7 87 231 3893 6694 4388
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71228 14837 275 1346 781 144 3 0
OW 64 113 24 282 422 177 25 0
VODI 0 15 6 233 499 327 92 0
ODI 0 4 1 41 434 519 94 0
CDI 0 15 3 33 288 1029 426 0
VCDI 0 36 7 100 251 3874 6664 4388

Date: 2019-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70682 15419 267 1243 850 171 4 0
OW 60 107 30 385 368 231 48 0
VODI 0 17 3 224 493 380 75 0
ODI 0 8 4 76 493 526 115 0
CDI 0 12 2 36 381 964 349 0
VCDI 0 37 9 67 329 3767 5978 4890
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70681 15417 272 1300 892 172 6 0
OW 61 103 21 295 341 263 45 0
VODI 0 21 7 244 484 379 92 0
ODI 0 8 2 87 431 498 116 0
CDI 0 8 3 31 439 993 420 0
VCDI 0 43 10 74 327 3734 5890 4890

Date: 2019-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70861 15572 259 1140 554 93 9 0
OW 63 68 25 490 370 114 24 0
VODI 0 19 2 257 613 154 37 0
ODI 0 13 1 37 706 517 77 0
CDI 0 13 2 13 444 1720 297 0
VCDI 0 26 6 47 145 3019 6288 5005
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70861 15475 244 1253 894 196 21 0
OW 63 138 28 276 351 240 51 0
VODI 0 27 11 248 460 400 117 0
ODI 0 6 2 107 397 527 137 0
CDI 0 10 0 38 453 1074 374 0
VCDI 0 55 10 62 277 3180 6032 5005

Date: 2019-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70971 15577 240 1276 668 152 9 0
OW 62 19 16 424 404 127 32 0
VODI 0 12 3 182 644 291 22 0
ODI 0 9 0 28 583 647 137 0
CDI 0 12 3 15 389 1656 384 0
VCDI 0 22 5 51 119 2043 7721 4145
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70971 15436 217 1233 981 331 35 0
OW 62 146 28 264 309 261 48 0
VODI 0 15 12 287 452 387 145 0
ODI 0 5 0 107 449 427 128 0
CDI 0 10 2 21 455 1295 471 0
VCDI 0 39 8 64 161 2215 7478 4145

Date: 2019-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71506 15585 223 1088 598 118 18 0
OW 61 102 22 368 406 119 53 0
VODI 0 16 8 234 566 290 101 0
ODI 0 12 2 55 589 498 190 0
CDI 0 12 4 12 460 1890 286 0
VCDI 0 29 9 65 263 2315 5019 5908
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71506 15358 200 1086 929 258 96 0
OW 61 232 30 213 253 227 136 0
VODI 0 97 19 275 393 287 118 0
ODI 0 13 5 136 466 438 73 0
CDI 0 12 1 39 567 1545 267 0
VCDI 0 44 13 73 274 2475 4977 5908


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