Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-05-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-04-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 37 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 138 65 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 329 323 204 17
VCDI 0 0 0 9 525 3509 14234 26448
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 52 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 25 82 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 177 67 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 56 343 523 88 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 474 3484 15285 25137
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 41 6 107 58 6 0 0
OW 0 4 3 73 111 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 65 203 49 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 240 113 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 256 644 233 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 279 3414 15003 24896
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 56 13 184 115 2 0 0
OW 0 15 0 87 162 5 0 0
VODI 0 14 2 65 253 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 50 240 149 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 263 583 314 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 412 4241 21192 17384
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 56 12 169 128 2 0 0
OW 0 12 1 98 136 6 0 0
VODI 0 17 2 76 274 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 43 232 154 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 255 566 254 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 420 4253 21240 17384

Date: 2019-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 166 13 187 63 0 0 0
OW 0 45 8 128 114 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 5 143 161 30 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 83 262 165 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 413 710 384 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 588 4312 21190 16594
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 156 14 219 50 0 0 0
OW 0 62 8 100 110 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 4 137 171 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 75 251 163 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 411 653 295 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 608 4378 21268 16594

Date: 2019-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 223 24 225 91 0 0 0
OW 0 99 17 225 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 4 203 193 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 46 406 183 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 683 1423 231 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 259 3625 17782 19767
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 216 30 261 106 0 0 0
OW 0 75 8 103 56 1 0 0
VODI 0 33 5 147 139 68 0 0
ODI 0 5 2 80 249 199 39 0
CDI 0 0 0 107 457 891 451 0
VCDI 0 0 0 67 681 4096 17527 19767

Date: 2019-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 392 31 321 35 0 0 0
OW 0 136 13 131 70 13 0 0
VODI 0 9 7 198 178 83 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 82 377 245 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 84 841 1333 212 14
VCDI 0 0 0 7 481 3984 13448 23125
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 361 32 248 33 0 0 0
OW 0 105 8 94 42 30 0 0
VODI 0 65 6 141 132 112 8 0
ODI 0 6 5 120 290 233 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 146 716 1032 223 12
VCDI 0 0 0 74 769 4251 13428 23127

Date: 2019-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 514 30 244 14 2 0 0
OW 0 115 8 155 66 41 1 0
VODI 0 24 9 190 183 137 16 0
ODI 0 1 1 83 360 230 86 0
CDI 0 0 0 89 747 1540 421 76
VCDI 0 0 0 20 501 3602 14146 22214
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 522 32 203 5 1 0 0
OW 0 100 5 92 43 61 7 0
VODI 0 31 9 153 189 173 34 0
ODI 0 1 2 145 270 242 94 20
CDI 0 0 0 131 770 1605 580 122
VCDI 0 0 0 57 594 3470 13955 22148


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