Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-05-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-04-26:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71432 14392 241 1171 693 111 3 0 OW 71 137 46 470 496 186 12 0 VODI 0 17 1 218 999 349 36 0 ODI 0 0 0 39 618 659 104 0 CDI 0 0 0 25 762 1946 895 31 VCDI 0 0 0 20 767 7366 33006 49729	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-28:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71075 14776 265 1352 790 183 2 0 OW 71 107 36 422 679 204 9 0 VODI 0 6 3 201 848 387 35 0 ODI 0 0 0 88 707 724 82 0 CDI 0 0 0 63 812 2127 585 36 VCDI 0 0 0 19 857 7116 33735 48646	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-30:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71376 14831 275 1456 731 136 0 0 OW 68 60 31 597 593 109 0 0 VODI 0 1 1 226 1008 320 16 0 ODI 0 2 3 65 890 797 58 0 CDI 0 7 1 39 639 2257 493 21 VCDI 0 5 0 43 559 7750 33674 47910	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-05-02:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71228 14992 284 1493 900 145 1 0 OW 64 157 37 485 587 180 24 0 VODI 0 32 7 323 847 329 80 0 ODI 0 7 3 159 847 737 133 0 CDI 0 15 2 58 740 1799 882 27 VCDI 0 33 7 87 994 10433 41728 36162	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71228 15013 293 1544 915 146 3 0 OW 64 129 25 400 586 183 25 0 VODI 0 39 10 360 863 352 92 0 ODI 0 4 2 144 807 724 139 0 CDI 0 15 3 56 716 1796 872 30 VCDI 0 36 7 101 1028 10422 41717 36159

Date: 2019-05-04:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70682 15674 281 1434 938 171 4 0 OW 60 164 44 534 533 231 48 0 VODI 0 54 10 388 726 418 76 0 ODI 0 13 8 233 875 741 158 1 CDI 0 12 2 87 1031 1864 922 94 VCDI 0 37 9 75 1322 9686 40988 36420	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70681 15665 291 1536 962 172 6 0 OW 61 174 30 404 505 263 45 0 VODI 0 50 13 399 727 410 94 0 ODI 0 14 7 236 814 704 169 4 CDI 0 8 3 93 1049 1817 943 115 VCDI 0 43 10 83 1368 9745 40939 36396

Date: 2019-05-06:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70861 15908 290 1413 669 93 9 0 OW 63 176 48 807 468 117 24 0 VODI 0 26 6 599 961 187 39 0 ODI 0 13 1 147 1254 735 98 0 CDI 0 13 2 181 1383 3391 627 28 VCDI 0 26 6 127 705 8303 37772 39472	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70861 15804 279 1556 1010 196 21 0 OW 63 213 38 390 440 241 51 0 VODI 0 65 18 446 660 473 133 0 ODI 0 15 8 328 737 762 193 10 CDI 0 10 0 245 1115 2143 1068 64 VCDI 0 55 10 309 1478 9011 37103 39426

Date: 2019-05-08:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70971 16121 288 1706 752 152 9 0 OW 62 155 29 598 570 146 32 0 VODI 0 37 12 480 957 386 36 0 ODI 0 16 1 164 1047 959 176 6 CDI 0 40 14 209 1447 3232 833 73 VCDI 0 58 13 192 1019 7979 36298 39773	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70971 15911 257 1524 1034 331 35 0 OW 62 255 37 373 392 293 53 0 VODI 0 114 26 489 667 509 167 3 ODI 0 14 7 342 836 714 179 29 CDI 0 25 5 263 1371 2485 952 95 VCDI 0 108 25 358 1492 8522 35998 39725

Date: 2019-05-10:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71506 16344 270 1434 630 120 18 0 OW 61 271 37 607 502 164 54 0 VODI 0 55 24 525 850 442 127 0 ODI 0 27 5 226 1044 781 306 2 CDI 0 32 13 255 1469 3603 952 133 VCDI 0 81 16 177 1420 8483 32597 41385	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71506 16024 239 1324 947 259 96 0 OW 61 363 41 349 309 291 150 0 VODI 0 202 32 517 631 480 168 16 ODI 0 74 16 374 841 727 197 58 CDI 0 40 14 382 1600 3310 1095 192 VCDI 0 107 23 278 1587 8526 32348 41254

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