Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-04-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-04-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70907 15003 253 1493 706 63 0 0
OW 70 91 17 352 677 94 3 0
VODI 0 4 1 118 718 331 17 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 435 587 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 596 928 235 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 165 3449 7021 4709
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71243 14846 260 1375 618 78 8 0
OW 70 114 31 338 674 96 3 0
VODI 0 4 5 192 658 372 33 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 361 409 63 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 341 948 241 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 179 3159 7776 4569
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71835 13975 223 1024 472 65 5 0
OW 70 230 55 446 422 49 0 0
VODI 0 69 12 331 750 175 33 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 579 509 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 329 1159 254 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 111 2560 8340 4944
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71578 14170 214 1070 622 83 0 0
OW 71 171 51 368 420 150 18 0
VODI 0 29 8 255 775 237 30 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 485 478 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 317 1384 226 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 85 2117 8708 4920
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71578 14135 216 1066 669 95 0 0
OW 71 198 49 319 378 132 4 0
VODI 0 37 8 303 738 248 45 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 468 459 41 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 359 1348 221 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 92 2167 8709 4920

Date: 2019-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71235 14467 253 1195 769 136 0 0
OW 71 103 29 413 557 211 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 158 717 345 13 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 346 518 42 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 270 1381 332 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 94 2260 7074 6061
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71235 14447 245 1212 837 136 0 0
OW 71 105 34 332 483 216 1 0
VODI 0 18 3 210 662 351 15 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 382 463 37 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 289 1446 325 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 100 2239 7084 6061

Date: 2019-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71117 14776 260 1176 601 121 0 0
OW 71 91 26 521 409 96 5 0
VODI 0 1 0 214 764 205 13 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 653 492 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 297 1664 252 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 107 2265 7411 5424
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71118 14710 255 1324 991 218 3 0
OW 70 135 23 338 423 206 13 0
VODI 0 23 8 187 514 335 34 0
ODI 0 0 0 66 342 509 64 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 406 1280 311 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 155 2295 7281 5424

Date: 2019-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71078 14901 288 1406 719 148 0 0
OW 64 62 21 390 442 161 7 0
VODI 0 0 1 157 622 271 65 0
ODI 0 1 2 30 505 587 67 0
CDI 0 11 4 35 299 1073 312 0
VCDI 0 15 4 56 226 3774 6974 4322
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71078 14833 270 1333 987 330 22 0
OW 64 126 35 379 336 198 45 0
VODI 0 4 5 212 511 326 51 0
ODI 0 1 1 55 400 513 80 0
CDI 0 9 3 38 348 819 374 0
VCDI 0 17 6 57 231 3828 6853 4322

Date: 2019-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70703 15338 268 1264 802 197 3 0
OW 62 100 33 388 333 213 44 0
VODI 0 18 2 200 500 336 103 0
ODI 0 4 3 41 444 593 115 0
CDI 0 14 2 23 324 1076 451 0
VCDI 0 39 4 68 264 3297 6858 4573
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70704 15255 257 1247 1005 413 67 0
OW 61 171 34 277 205 199 63 0
VODI 0 30 12 266 471 349 81 0
ODI 0 1 1 92 327 482 149 0
CDI 0 6 2 22 301 649 409 0
VCDI 0 50 6 80 358 3620 6805 4573


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