Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-04-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-04-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 21 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 103 53 5 8
CDI 0 0 0 2 157 384 168 216
VCDI 0 0 0 0 200 1995 10710 31816
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 37 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 86 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 182 214 194 27
VCDI 0 0 0 0 240 3099 11698 30023
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 4 48 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 149 27 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 311 202 133 41
VCDI 0 0 0 8 453 2960 13276 28201
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 33 13 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 121 73 81 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 208 459 241 3
VCDI 0 0 0 10 537 4580 13894 25594
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 19 16 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 113 56 84 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 198 429 242 6
VCDI 0 0 0 8 569 4624 13889 25591

Date: 2019-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 2 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 85 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 163 42 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 322 348 198 2
VCDI 0 0 0 4 468 3140 15254 25804
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 65 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 161 42 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 298 340 187 2
VCDI 0 0 0 3 515 3148 15264 25804

Date: 2019-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 12 5 0 0 0
OW 0 11 7 109 63 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 133 153 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 42 303 122 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 245 731 137 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 258 3603 13111 26788
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 9 20 5 0 0
OW 0 0 0 33 44 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 63 87 12 4 0
ODI 0 11 3 93 146 138 24 0
CDI 0 0 0 79 271 606 174 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 459 3701 13054 26794

Date: 2019-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 49 10 170 83 3 0 0
OW 0 6 0 72 125 8 0 0
VODI 0 4 2 61 241 43 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 46 242 126 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 254 552 243 10
VCDI 0 0 0 1 342 4127 18946 20078
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 7 4 94 55 6 0 0
OW 0 12 4 44 58 9 0 0
VODI 0 37 2 91 191 24 2 0
ODI 0 3 2 76 267 176 22 1
CDI 0 0 0 27 314 722 289 16
VCDI 0 0 0 35 402 3922 18881 20071

Date: 2019-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 111 15 173 91 0 0 0
OW 0 16 3 129 144 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 3 127 202 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 71 202 184 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 285 738 290 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 486 4579 21616 16308
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 35 5 136 84 4 0 0
OW 0 39 7 82 68 12 1 0
VODI 0 68 6 170 223 73 9 0
ODI 0 0 3 93 270 299 46 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 326 930 422 17
VCDI 0 0 0 8 439 4203 21450 16304


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