Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-04-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-04-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70907 15173 257 1516 709 63 0 0
OW 70 124 26 381 696 94 3 0
VODI 0 14 4 181 807 337 17 0
ODI 0 0 0 61 619 700 35 8
CDI 0 0 0 8 789 1503 464 281
VCDI 0 0 0 0 417 6039 26258 58487
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71243 15034 264 1399 620 78 8 0
OW 70 156 41 383 697 96 3 0
VODI 0 10 7 273 778 378 33 0
ODI 0 0 0 64 563 462 69 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 576 1331 523 34
VCDI 0 0 0 2 490 7052 28024 56257
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71835 14151 232 1063 478 65 5 0
OW 70 249 59 518 466 49 0 0
VODI 0 72 15 406 960 193 33 0
ODI 0 0 0 82 783 654 87 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 703 1684 544 73
VCDI 0 0 0 8 704 7630 33066 50071
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71578 14312 219 1101 631 83 0 0
OW 71 185 57 424 469 150 18 0
VODI 0 32 8 297 978 277 34 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 735 694 179 1
CDI 0 0 0 19 682 2134 815 13
VCDI 0 0 0 10 857 8589 35770 45591
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71578 14277 221 1101 679 95 0 0
OW 71 213 54 365 412 132 4 0
VODI 0 39 9 346 917 282 54 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 731 641 176 1
CDI 0 0 0 16 705 2075 819 15
VCDI 0 0 0 9 908 8702 35763 45589

Date: 2019-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71235 14568 258 1234 783 136 0 0
OW 71 117 33 458 600 220 1 0
VODI 0 3 1 182 937 417 13 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 568 735 71 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 676 2032 789 14
VCDI 0 0 0 23 641 6878 33847 49471
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71235 14551 251 1248 848 136 0 0
OW 71 116 38 375 511 224 1 0
VODI 0 21 3 239 867 412 15 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 606 680 72 1
CDI 0 0 0 14 667 2100 782 16
VCDI 0 0 0 21 706 6866 33851 49468

Date: 2019-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71117 14874 262 1224 620 121 0 0
OW 71 115 40 668 498 102 5 0
VODI 0 3 1 370 997 219 13 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 1172 738 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 663 2725 475 13
VCDI 0 0 0 15 483 7009 32506 49823
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71118 14804 259 1369 1025 223 3 0
OW 70 153 28 403 504 215 13 0
VODI 0 24 13 275 738 380 38 0
ODI 0 11 3 163 582 792 95 0
CDI 0 0 0 100 796 2149 754 32
VCDI 0 0 0 40 788 7155 32129 49804

Date: 2019-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71078 15064 301 1598 814 151 0 0
OW 64 73 25 498 591 169 7 0
VODI 0 6 3 274 929 319 65 0
ODI 0 1 2 113 928 736 77 0
CDI 0 11 4 55 701 1821 709 19
VCDI 0 15 4 57 741 10429 40155 38441
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71078 14926 275 1453 1061 336 22 0
OW 64 169 44 461 429 207 45 0
VODI 0 45 8 380 811 363 53 0
ODI 0 4 3 140 765 752 112 2
CDI 0 9 3 69 770 1770 856 26
VCDI 0 17 6 92 868 10197 39925 38432

Date: 2019-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70703 15548 285 1447 917 198 3 0
OW 62 125 41 547 506 219 44 0
VODI 0 40 6 354 790 378 104 0
ODI 0 4 4 175 746 869 155 2
CDI 0 14 2 53 781 2037 899 108
VCDI 0 39 4 68 1151 9537 42076 36007
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70704 15371 262 1395 1116 421 67 0
OW 61 233 47 375 319 222 67 0
VODI 0 109 21 471 783 483 106 0
ODI 0 1 4 205 652 880 249 0
CDI 0 6 2 86 733 1754 1205 18
VCDI 0 50 6 112 1288 9478 41587 36099


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