Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-04-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-04-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70262 14903 235 1034 466 96 19 0
OW 73 315 87 666 530 63 19 0
VODI 0 73 16 359 886 156 36 0
ODI 0 0 0 83 717 473 63 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 599 1227 570 62
VCDI 0 0 0 10 480 4520 27343 60574
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70764 14669 248 1100 494 118 12 0
OW 64 255 63 619 593 97 21 0
VODI 0 36 9 323 813 236 42 0
ODI 0 0 0 113 617 500 103 0
CDI 0 0 0 63 611 1150 520 121
VCDI 0 0 0 50 592 4960 21949 65123
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70580 15139 260 1367 554 80 0 0
OW 68 203 48 505 492 83 0 0
VODI 0 24 15 267 928 195 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 873 617 62 16
CDI 0 0 0 0 613 1858 376 197
VCDI 0 0 0 0 222 5545 24667 61168
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71044 14969 252 1496 635 80 0 0
OW 70 189 32 410 606 93 0 0
VODI 0 12 5 231 773 272 10 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 758 545 140 26
CDI 0 0 0 10 782 1554 630 104
VCDI 0 0 0 0 520 6417 25694 58659
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71044 14977 255 1536 727 87 0 0
OW 70 181 28 371 547 96 0 0
VODI 0 12 6 210 765 259 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 684 484 118 35
CDI 0 0 0 11 793 1555 624 89
VCDI 0 0 0 0 558 6480 25724 58665

Date: 2019-04-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71125 15025 276 1550 691 71 8 0
OW 70 124 21 351 742 85 1 0
VODI 0 22 6 183 789 400 22 0
ODI 0 0 1 49 612 505 81 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 887 1256 566 128
VCDI 0 0 0 0 469 6373 25589 58963
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71125 15050 279 1603 806 76 8 0
OW 70 96 16 300 647 92 1 0
VODI 0 23 7 163 776 377 18 0
ODI 0 2 2 55 579 497 81 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 866 1259 544 120
VCDI 0 0 0 0 516 6389 25615 58971

Date: 2019-04-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71492 14542 221 1023 405 85 10 0
OW 70 318 72 568 388 31 1 0
VODI 0 99 19 537 932 176 15 0
ODI 0 0 0 97 1098 476 44 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 580 1895 484 16
VCDI 0 0 0 2 438 6960 30413 53524
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71492 14761 266 1425 669 114 12 0
OW 70 160 25 336 644 123 16 0
VODI 0 38 20 232 707 336 22 0
ODI 0 0 1 157 469 401 68 16
CDI 0 0 0 73 498 1026 491 59
VCDI 0 0 0 21 854 7623 30358 53465

Date: 2019-04-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71566 14274 236 1105 519 76 4 0
OW 70 204 52 488 514 80 8 0
VODI 0 45 9 346 920 282 64 0
ODI 0 0 0 50 742 737 143 5
CDI 0 0 0 12 718 1977 633 28
VCDI 0 0 0 0 898 8784 34004 47455
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71566 14374 253 1294 869 183 39 0
OW 70 117 32 350 566 227 36 0
VODI 0 32 11 149 610 371 53 0
ODI 0 0 1 143 420 521 189 6
CDI 0 0 0 52 585 1353 674 85
VCDI 0 0 0 13 1261 9281 33865 47397

Date: 2019-04-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71432 14392 241 1171 693 111 3 0
OW 71 137 46 470 496 186 12 0
VODI 0 17 1 218 999 349 36 0
ODI 0 0 0 39 618 659 104 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 762 1946 895 31
VCDI 0 0 0 20 767 7366 33006 49729
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71432 14418 250 1295 1135 291 24 0
OW 71 103 31 324 349 234 37 0
VODI 0 25 6 182 616 339 86 0
ODI 0 0 1 83 484 481 176 16
CDI 0 0 0 22 737 1253 963 165
VCDI 0 0 0 37 1014 8019 32770 49579


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