Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-04-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-04-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68666 16037 234 1336 476 63 9 0
OW 60 351 51 588 538 44 14 0
VODI 0 70 21 285 730 184 20 0
ODI 0 1 5 122 419 340 62 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 508 828 236 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 310 2198 7963 6279
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68451 16098 260 1380 486 75 28 0
OW 61 339 46 426 536 42 29 0
VODI 0 82 19 246 897 164 41 0
ODI 0 6 6 127 423 357 84 0
CDI 0 2 0 81 486 909 254 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 433 2365 7698 6142
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68731 15822 252 1151 326 79 24 0
OW 62 360 57 552 269 45 23 0
VODI 0 66 25 422 804 98 29 0
ODI 0 0 0 72 821 345 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 513 1350 304 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 116 1803 7963 6566
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69887 15131 244 1107 381 81 16 0
OW 62 260 58 584 486 53 21 0
VODI 0 29 9 253 826 127 32 0
ODI 0 0 0 66 557 352 43 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 421 943 257 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 149 1941 8219 6494
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69887 15175 265 1233 435 82 19 0
OW 62 226 38 453 456 51 22 0
VODI 0 19 8 257 792 120 27 0
ODI 0 0 0 66 547 353 43 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 438 997 263 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 152 1894 8214 6494

Date: 2019-04-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70486 14631 223 1037 470 117 14 0
OW 66 321 72 562 471 91 17 0
VODI 0 28 14 295 760 150 32 0
ODI 0 0 0 100 490 417 85 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 431 840 191 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 254 2465 7239 6696
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70486 14791 254 1181 524 126 14 0
OW 66 158 44 465 490 78 17 0
VODI 0 31 11 238 698 157 29 0
ODI 0 0 0 102 482 368 93 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 450 856 177 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 232 2495 7248 6696

Date: 2019-04-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70974 14441 222 978 407 84 4 0
OW 62 299 63 692 365 62 6 0
VODI 0 50 13 417 784 115 18 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 752 381 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 421 1419 181 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 128 2445 6713 6521
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70973 14614 263 1327 605 128 9 0
OW 63 139 27 420 469 98 15 0
VODI 0 29 7 254 572 251 35 0
ODI 0 8 1 84 465 322 85 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 428 882 173 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 318 2825 6641 6521

Date: 2019-04-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71017 14829 243 1332 563 77 12 0
OW 71 188 30 456 481 85 1 0
VODI 0 17 6 229 767 194 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 601 384 35 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 544 1144 281 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 203 2908 6571 5817
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71017 14893 253 1340 668 139 14 0
OW 71 126 21 384 419 130 21 0
VODI 0 15 5 257 612 252 52 0
ODI 0 0 0 42 509 292 67 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 596 948 301 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 355 3031 6450 5817

Date: 2019-04-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70907 15003 253 1493 706 63 0 0
OW 70 91 17 352 677 94 3 0
VODI 0 4 1 118 718 331 17 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 435 587 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 596 928 235 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 165 3449 7021 4709
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70907 14878 249 1458 836 120 0 0
OW 70 164 14 270 492 195 5 0
VODI 0 49 5 192 532 319 20 0
ODI 0 4 3 61 450 307 59 0
CDI 0 3 0 12 679 811 259 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 308 3700 6959 4709


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