Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-04-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-04-05:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68666 16176 243 1373 485 63 9 0 OW 60 463 63 660 592 46 14 0 VODI 0 102 27 412 1044 302 20 0 ODI 0 14 6 142 723 576 142 0 CDI 0 3 1 83 715 1414 589 79 VCDI 0 0 0 11 546 4639 27460 59085	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-07:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68451 16276 268 1416 487 75 28 0 OW 61 466 58 510 570 45 29 0 VODI 0 112 31 376 1102 180 43 0 ODI 0 19 6 160 678 640 99 0 CDI 0 5 2 114 760 1544 536 41 VCDI 0 0 0 49 778 4978 26691 59364	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-09:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68731 15981 265 1236 347 79 24 0 OW 62 385 63 633 312 45 23 0 VODI 0 76 25 499 956 138 29 0 ODI 0 0 0 91 1009 548 99 0 CDI 0 0 0 10 793 1941 733 77 VCDI 0 0 0 0 239 4002 26009 61588	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-11:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 69887 15273 256 1154 392 81 16 0 OW 62 326 67 650 547 53 21 0 VODI 0 45 14 340 936 141 32 0 ODI 0 0 0 89 738 469 57 0 CDI 0 0 0 18 605 1320 598 75 VCDI 0 0 0 0 341 4269 24822 63354	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 69887 15341 282 1300 469 82 19 0 OW 62 266 42 499 519 54 22 0 VODI 0 37 13 334 894 131 27 0 ODI 0 0 0 99 726 467 72 0 CDI 0 0 0 19 614 1381 635 79 VCDI 0 0 0 0 337 4218 24771 63350

Date: 2019-04-13:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70486 14742 232 1070 489 117 14 0 OW 66 329 76 601 527 95 17 0 VODI 0 30 15 328 873 201 32 0 ODI 0 0 0 111 707 499 99 0 CDI 0 0 0 57 647 1201 534 47 VCDI 0 0 0 29 648 5164 26461 60504	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70486 14901 266 1222 553 127 14 0 OW 66 165 45 496 544 88 17 0 VODI 0 35 12 267 807 194 29 0 ODI 0 0 0 124 669 455 112 0 CDI 0 0 0 50 683 1246 573 54 VCDI 0 0 0 37 635 5167 26412 60497

Date: 2019-04-15:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70974 14553 231 1006 426 84 4 0 OW 62 308 71 736 387 67 6 0 VODI 0 53 13 485 954 151 18 0 ODI 0 0 0 64 997 577 52 20 CDI 0 0 0 21 592 2029 535 189 VCDI 0 0 0 0 262 4643 22603 63875	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70973 14712 272 1361 626 129 9 0 OW 63 159 32 436 488 105 15 0 VODI 0 33 10 292 678 263 35 0 ODI 0 10 1 110 639 406 113 0 CDI 0 0 0 57 614 1286 348 162 VCDI 0 0 0 56 573 5362 22698 63922

Date: 2019-04-17:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71017 14967 251 1360 572 77 12 0 OW 71 206 38 505 505 85 1 0 VODI 0 21 8 273 890 212 5 0 ODI 0 0 0 21 848 519 109 6 CDI 0 0 0 10 689 1671 462 79 VCDI 0 0 0 0 343 5959 25054 60202	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71017 15039 262 1364 685 139 14 0 OW 71 136 29 420 437 131 21 0 VODI 0 19 6 309 680 260 72 2 ODI 0 0 0 63 707 381 160 13 CDI 0 0 0 13 751 1430 649 159 VCDI 0 0 0 0 587 6182 24727 60113

Date: 2019-04-19:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70907 15173 257 1516 709 63 0 0 OW 70 124 26 381 696 94 3 0 VODI 0 14 4 181 807 337 17 0 ODI 0 0 0 61 619 700 35 8 CDI 0 0 0 8 789 1503 464 281 VCDI 0 0 0 0 417 6039 26258 58487	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70907 15042 254 1482 844 120 0 0 OW 70 198 20 286 505 195 5 0 VODI 0 62 9 248 600 327 20 0 ODI 0 6 4 96 585 416 131 22 CDI 0 3 0 31 847 1116 705 263 VCDI 0 0 0 4 656 6562 25916 58491

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