Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-04-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-03-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69306 14662 172 795 336 102 4 0
OW 51 621 84 662 353 43 7 0
VODI 0 189 36 611 762 127 13 0
ODI 0 45 12 269 686 240 24 0
CDI 0 3 5 83 797 733 224 0
VCDI 0 0 0 59 563 2291 8511 5619
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68571 15208 178 896 421 118 0 0
OW 50 571 66 546 447 89 8 0
VODI 0 177 52 407 839 183 32 0
ODI 0 43 10 158 708 295 69 0
CDI 0 0 4 105 621 974 272 1
VCDI 0 0 0 83 572 2482 7760 6084
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68520 15811 215 1124 418 90 4 0
OW 62 384 69 613 455 43 11 0
VODI 0 50 16 357 841 102 14 0
ODI 0 4 2 128 659 239 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 108 541 702 205 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 430 2663 8528 5629
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68500 15989 235 1358 497 66 34 0
OW 61 274 31 494 612 36 32 0
VODI 0 59 18 360 731 145 36 0
ODI 0 2 3 138 442 322 69 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 482 863 271 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 358 2165 7769 6556
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68501 16031 243 1456 601 68 38 0
OW 60 225 23 350 512 30 24 0
VODI 0 67 18 390 680 160 37 0
ODI 0 1 3 152 467 296 86 0
CDI 0 0 0 64 495 858 260 0
VCDI 0 0 0 30 367 2185 7766 6556

Date: 2019-04-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68748 15866 241 1424 434 68 0 0
OW 61 420 46 454 472 47 5 0
VODI 0 88 25 323 851 173 13 0
ODI 0 7 6 138 386 389 52 0
CDI 0 0 1 96 453 929 229 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 408 2584 7856 5774
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68749 15865 252 1502 484 69 0 0
OW 60 433 40 413 456 44 7 0
VODI 0 77 18 280 785 162 15 0
ODI 0 6 9 146 420 382 47 0
CDI 0 0 0 98 461 928 258 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 398 2605 7828 5774

Date: 2019-04-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68564 15924 233 1094 274 75 35 0
OW 61 410 85 577 252 27 25 0
VODI 0 51 25 472 844 68 29 0
ODI 0 0 0 112 1003 308 48 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 449 1443 414 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 165 1762 7900 6356
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68564 15955 270 1379 420 91 52 0
OW 61 371 49 471 447 44 34 0
VODI 0 57 21 230 826 132 45 0
ODI 0 2 3 89 554 375 104 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 428 1128 477 1
VCDI 0 0 0 26 312 1913 7739 6359

Date: 2019-04-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69141 15616 255 1194 349 96 17 0
OW 62 313 54 537 405 52 25 0
VODI 0 50 13 341 829 115 38 0
ODI 0 0 0 57 678 320 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 546 975 214 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 138 2209 7973 6440
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69141 15538 263 1323 527 126 36 0
OW 62 323 29 370 479 64 41 0
VODI 0 108 25 263 588 193 52 0
ODI 0 10 5 126 519 383 126 0
CDI 0 0 0 48 648 1006 305 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 184 1995 7752 6437

Date: 2019-04-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70262 14778 222 998 452 96 19 0
OW 73 288 83 582 486 61 19 0
VODI 0 43 10 269 782 142 36 0
ODI 0 0 0 61 503 393 48 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 374 896 260 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 174 2071 8100 6502
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70263 14800 245 1140 758 153 51 0
OW 72 220 42 339 490 100 39 0
VODI 0 89 27 299 519 295 70 0
ODI 0 0 1 94 401 460 155 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 375 935 296 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 228 1716 7871 6502


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