Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-04-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-03-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69306 14717 176 820 340 102 4 0
OW 51 645 87 735 433 102 8 0
VODI 0 201 38 686 959 179 14 0
ODI 0 52 13 304 902 376 42 8
CDI 0 3 7 112 1155 1144 389 130
VCDI 0 0 0 75 902 5701 29871 56259
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68571 15269 183 949 430 133 0 0
OW 50 611 71 612 567 187 8 0
VODI 0 216 60 489 1039 223 48 0
ODI 0 50 15 217 956 430 104 1
CDI 0 12 6 155 920 1427 550 84
VCDI 0 6 2 163 975 5579 30033 55647
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68520 15944 229 1203 437 90 4 0
OW 62 440 81 724 537 55 11 0
VODI 0 67 18 515 1190 245 16 0
ODI 0 16 3 217 950 506 66 0
CDI 0 12 3 188 749 1375 428 60
VCDI 0 0 0 78 656 5568 29269 56516
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-04-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68500 16151 246 1414 506 66 34 0
OW 61 362 42 598 678 40 32 0
VODI 0 80 25 483 1047 329 38 0
ODI 0 13 3 197 663 636 127 0
CDI 0 3 1 117 667 1483 718 70
VCDI 0 0 0 50 670 4670 29834 56394
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68501 16165 257 1533 618 68 38 0
OW 60 334 31 426 565 31 24 0
VODI 0 96 25 508 1012 359 40 0
ODI 0 12 3 202 658 661 184 0
CDI 0 2 1 131 672 1452 706 71
VCDI 0 0 0 59 706 4653 29791 56393

Date: 2019-04-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68748 16034 248 1458 436 68 0 0
OW 61 552 61 522 502 48 5 0
VODI 0 126 31 448 1100 238 13 0
ODI 0 17 7 157 721 659 94 0
CDI 0 10 3 117 686 1530 500 21
VCDI 0 0 0 62 649 5138 26538 59440
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68749 16050 261 1560 492 69 0 0
OW 60 541 52 467 485 45 7 0
VODI 0 125 25 398 1096 254 15 0
ODI 0 16 11 165 663 721 103 0
CDI 0 7 1 119 713 1497 560 16
VCDI 0 0 0 55 645 5095 26465 59445

Date: 2019-04-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68564 16135 251 1155 291 75 35 0
OW 61 463 94 669 290 27 25 0
VODI 0 64 27 599 1013 119 33 0
ODI 0 0 2 134 1352 552 76 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 746 2321 915 34
VCDI 0 0 0 0 284 3693 27414 59521
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68564 16147 286 1463 432 91 52 0
OW 61 420 54 531 476 44 34 0
VODI 0 85 29 339 1026 176 48 0
ODI 0 10 3 119 762 650 174 0
CDI 0 0 2 90 658 1656 975 61
VCDI 0 0 0 29 622 4170 27215 59494

Date: 2019-04-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69141 15754 268 1257 367 96 17 0
OW 62 339 57 607 460 52 25 0
VODI 0 55 16 425 973 129 38 0
ODI 0 0 0 72 862 499 72 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 734 1439 495 103
VCDI 0 0 0 0 261 4508 25476 62384
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69141 15675 273 1407 554 126 36 0
OW 62 347 36 431 518 66 41 0
VODI 0 115 27 331 768 256 54 0
ODI 0 11 5 140 651 571 194 0
CDI 0 0 0 57 783 1343 698 89
VCDI 0 0 0 0 383 4361 25100 62398

Date: 2019-04-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70262 14903 235 1034 466 96 19 0
OW 73 315 87 666 530 63 19 0
VODI 0 73 16 359 886 156 36 0
ODI 0 0 0 83 717 473 63 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 599 1227 570 62
VCDI 0 0 0 10 480 4520 27343 60574
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70263 14934 259 1217 781 153 51 0
OW 72 255 47 389 527 108 39 0
VODI 0 102 30 385 662 341 73 0
ODI 0 0 2 111 566 544 216 24
CDI 0 0 0 70 530 1160 737 205
VCDI 0 0 0 13 612 4229 26934 60407


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