Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-03-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69330 14062 149 680 333 71 0 0
OW 69 932 70 555 412 85 7 0
VODI 0 464 75 561 624 146 20 0
ODI 0 21 13 243 678 339 21 0
CDI 0 6 3 79 660 813 73 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 596 2855 7936 6085
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69648 14065 142 663 363 68 0 0
OW 54 1127 61 597 440 83 0 0
VODI 0 319 59 439 553 207 0 0
ODI 0 50 23 246 512 391 13 0
CDI 0 13 3 133 515 717 113 0
VCDI 0 3 2 66 736 3008 7606 6062
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69419 14772 151 629 319 79 0 0
OW 51 562 71 620 410 90 21 0
VODI 0 149 49 463 716 160 23 0
ODI 0 15 7 162 604 359 36 0
CDI 0 0 2 79 585 1016 197 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 425 2614 7768 6456
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69320 14547 159 674 329 87 21 0
OW 51 541 82 670 379 49 28 0
VODI 0 177 34 431 840 124 29 0
ODI 0 27 12 184 699 266 51 0
CDI 0 1 2 65 704 669 314 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 438 2243 7982 6852
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69320 14573 167 745 372 93 30 0
OW 51 467 62 556 344 45 24 0
VODI 0 217 43 447 771 124 25 0
ODI 0 34 12 186 721 263 85 0
CDI 0 2 5 86 727 676 287 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 454 2237 7974 6852

Date: 2019-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68914 15033 176 897 349 133 0 0
OW 50 594 61 598 480 72 4 0
VODI 0 194 56 445 796 168 12 0
ODI 0 36 17 190 709 273 60 0
CDI 0 1 3 110 710 784 275 0
VCDI 0 0 0 74 687 2432 7903 5804
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68914 15085 173 926 393 139 0 0
OW 50 538 60 587 421 75 5 0
VODI 0 185 53 396 871 186 13 0
ODI 0 44 20 204 681 254 84 0
CDI 0 6 7 104 648 694 263 0
VCDI 0 0 0 97 717 2514 7889 5804

Date: 2019-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68591 15323 182 826 290 94 0 0
OW 62 639 91 813 366 50 4 0
VODI 0 103 35 502 870 118 10 0
ODI 0 1 2 141 866 330 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 587 1166 220 0
VCDI 0 0 0 42 259 2306 8356 5766
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68590 15249 189 915 500 118 6 0
OW 63 543 56 596 354 88 9 0
VODI 0 247 49 450 676 182 30 0
ODI 0 27 13 195 547 302 79 0
CDI 0 0 3 131 594 861 240 0
VCDI 0 0 0 103 567 2513 8249 5766

Date: 2019-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68486 15925 234 1220 520 70 19 0
OW 62 329 47 484 492 43 17 0
VODI 0 60 16 293 901 120 23 0
ODI 0 6 8 128 520 287 40 0
CDI 0 3 1 98 440 753 210 0
VCDI 0 0 0 56 491 2657 7946 6095
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68486 15506 196 1029 548 95 43 0
OW 62 602 56 434 431 62 18 0
VODI 0 173 36 389 656 154 40 0
ODI 0 29 8 170 620 246 117 0
CDI 0 8 7 117 484 633 156 2
VCDI 0 5 3 140 625 2740 7881 6093

Date: 2019-04-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68666 16037 234 1336 476 63 9 0
OW 60 351 51 588 538 44 14 0
VODI 0 70 21 285 730 184 20 0
ODI 0 1 5 122 419 340 62 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 508 828 236 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 310 2198 7963 6279
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68664 15622 200 1067 475 84 38 0
OW 62 639 60 590 370 52 19 0
VODI 0 153 34 514 613 184 38 0
ODI 0 25 6 89 479 262 109 0
CDI 0 18 8 49 557 672 237 0
VCDI 0 2 3 74 487 2403 7863 6279


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