Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-03-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 98 13 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 1352 8614 35756
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 15 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 101 227 27 17
VCDI 0 0 0 0 185 2994 11698 30566
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 31 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 38 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 108 264 17 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 206 2516 10008 32593
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 40 48 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 43 27 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 59 52 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 157 172 59 21
VCDI 0 0 0 0 112 2352 13061 29651
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 14 1 0
OW 0 0 0 0 41 39 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 39 23 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 55 59 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 160 183 67 21
VCDI 0 0 0 0 116 2335 13049 29651

Date: 2019-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 53 75 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 8 27 37 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 63 63 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 156 238 79 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 97 2470 13741 28733
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 8 29 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 43 48 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 7 28 32 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 62 72 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 140 251 98 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 115 2451 13719 28729

Date: 2019-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 15 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 13 63 115 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 36 166 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 53 308 121 17
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 1442 13044 30387
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 37 2 0
OW 0 0 0 2 21 83 11 0
VODI 0 0 0 7 20 24 21 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 42 103 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 50 229 100 5
VCDI 0 0 0 4 66 1559 13039 30399

Date: 2019-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 12 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 5 39 150 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 70 91 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 119 223 29 19
VCDI 0 0 0 0 171 1622 10595 32695
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 1 20 86 0 0
OW 0 0 0 3 10 53 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 7 18 49 14 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 42 64 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 104 148 83 28
VCDI 0 0 0 0 217 1688 10509 32686

Date: 2019-04-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 37 103 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 22 92 56 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 54 187 80 25
VCDI 0 0 0 0 86 1661 9992 33468
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 14 11 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 25 113 6 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 14 31 55 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 41 59 57 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 55 168 123 49
VCDI 0 0 0 0 51 1663 9887 33444


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