Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-03-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69330 14069 150 701 343 71 0 0
OW 69 932 70 565 429 85 7 0
VODI 0 464 75 573 673 157 20 0
ODI 0 21 13 244 759 375 21 0
CDI 0 6 3 79 704 1084 163 111
VCDI 0 0 0 34 666 4715 24885 64382
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69648 14098 146 684 366 68 0 0
OW 54 1139 63 616 469 83 0 0
VODI 0 332 60 476 617 211 0 0
ODI 0 58 24 288 626 457 13 0
CDI 0 15 5 163 778 1026 148 26
VCDI 0 3 2 119 1198 6632 27300 59037
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69419 14844 158 654 342 79 0 0
OW 51 593 79 694 444 106 21 0
VODI 0 170 53 558 894 193 23 0
ODI 0 25 9 204 783 430 39 0
CDI 0 2 5 137 833 1473 277 65
VCDI 0 0 0 72 848 5898 25440 61133
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69320 14614 163 697 335 89 21 0
OW 51 562 84 732 461 97 29 0
VODI 0 195 35 493 1066 159 30 0
ODI 0 35 15 214 911 393 60 6
CDI 0 2 4 95 1023 1113 458 51
VCDI 0 0 0 51 802 5640 28650 58292
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69320 14640 171 783 390 107 31 0
OW 51 489 64 621 451 84 24 0
VODI 0 236 45 497 975 160 26 0
ODI 0 41 14 216 932 399 98 5
CDI 0 2 7 117 1046 1114 441 53
VCDI 0 0 0 48 804 5627 28628 58291

Date: 2019-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68914 15090 180 932 352 133 0 0
OW 50 639 68 680 580 147 4 0
VODI 0 223 62 536 973 218 13 0
ODI 0 44 21 245 933 419 78 14
CDI 0 9 4 145 1085 1247 419 134
VCDI 0 2 3 121 1057 5863 29726 55685
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68914 15157 179 983 410 168 0 0
OW 50 580 67 679 535 123 5 0
VODI 0 204 58 462 1044 244 15 0
ODI 0 53 24 256 892 401 106 16
CDI 0 12 8 140 998 1148 427 146
VCDI 0 1 2 139 1101 5943 29687 55671

Date: 2019-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68591 15401 191 888 294 94 0 0
OW 62 711 101 911 418 54 4 0
VODI 0 129 44 683 1220 239 11 0
ODI 0 10 2 219 1182 629 65 19
CDI 0 8 1 144 811 1898 493 97
VCDI 0 1 1 68 435 4817 30533 55569
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68590 15330 198 1022 538 155 8 0
OW 63 590 62 642 450 179 20 0
VODI 0 278 58 540 888 233 51 0
ODI 0 40 16 279 755 492 110 0
CDI 0 10 5 218 791 1341 513 54
VCDI 0 12 1 212 938 5331 30404 55631

Date: 2019-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68486 16074 247 1284 532 70 19 0
OW 62 407 56 599 561 46 17 0
VODI 0 79 22 418 1250 288 25 0
ODI 0 17 9 204 821 556 71 0
CDI 0 14 4 160 697 1438 481 87
VCDI 0 0 0 110 843 5725 28595 56674
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68486 15615 206 1090 588 181 43 0
OW 62 663 61 501 513 115 18 0
VODI 0 222 44 477 900 240 56 0
ODI 0 54 13 235 804 441 169 0
CDI 0 18 7 200 733 1149 475 34
VCDI 0 19 7 272 1166 5997 28447 56727

Date: 2019-04-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68666 16176 243 1373 485 63 9 0
OW 60 463 63 660 592 46 14 0
VODI 0 102 27 412 1044 302 20 0
ODI 0 14 6 142 723 576 142 0
CDI 0 3 1 83 715 1414 589 79
VCDI 0 0 0 11 546 4639 27460 59085
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68664 15740 208 1098 496 95 38 0
OW 62 707 65 628 436 165 25 0
VODI 0 226 43 605 878 237 93 0
ODI 0 50 11 146 675 428 182 22
CDI 0 27 9 77 781 1085 560 222
VCDI 0 8 4 127 839 5030 27336 58920


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