Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-03-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-03-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67805 15088 189 901 538 142 19 0
OW 52 379 47 451 359 137 39 0
VODI 0 199 34 367 643 176 73 0
ODI 0 74 17 171 685 335 123 0
CDI 0 31 16 88 575 741 340 0
VCDI 0 3 4 63 419 1603 8629 7545
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68011 15120 171 856 567 171 47 0
OW 52 581 65 399 340 130 39 0
VODI 0 365 49 539 569 198 58 0
ODI 0 166 30 213 545 324 74 0
CDI 0 57 15 164 399 516 121 0
VCDI 0 0 0 51 528 2257 8115 7198
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68129 15182 199 981 506 149 0 0
OW 52 716 80 495 394 105 2 0
VODI 0 370 46 475 587 230 12 0
ODI 0 65 8 154 503 353 33 0
CDI 0 0 1 80 435 862 168 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 424 2619 8326 6355
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69007 14200 155 767 433 105 2 0
OW 57 768 62 443 481 96 5 0
VODI 0 433 64 544 765 188 34 0
ODI 0 40 8 148 610 362 47 0
CDI 0 1 2 70 523 921 165 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 404 2620 8049 6508
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69007 14285 160 844 457 107 4 0
OW 57 683 71 472 610 99 6 0
VODI 0 444 51 483 693 212 31 0
ODI 0 29 7 112 586 476 59 0
CDI 0 1 2 59 482 791 164 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 388 2607 8038 6508

Date: 2019-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69622 13921 141 643 385 85 2 0
OW 78 1093 75 530 438 95 11 0
VODI 2 395 63 422 569 200 16 0
ODI 0 33 17 245 542 420 33 0
CDI 0 13 7 105 481 721 103 0
VCDI 0 0 0 65 622 2838 7736 6333
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69611 14154 151 684 422 87 1 0
OW 89 819 75 511 413 100 10 0
VODI 2 440 58 434 604 239 18 0
ODI 0 29 11 217 499 458 42 0
CDI 0 13 8 110 516 644 120 0
VCDI 0 0 0 54 583 2831 7710 6333

Date: 2019-03-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70022 14180 146 526 287 47 0 0
OW 51 714 80 636 315 59 0 0
VODI 0 181 61 719 713 136 0 0
ODI 0 17 8 166 823 337 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 69 662 1056 51 7
VCDI 0 0 0 26 455 3345 7904 5300
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70022 13898 156 634 411 62 0 0
OW 51 782 69 593 455 67 0 0
VODI 0 322 43 441 487 190 0 0
ODI 0 67 15 248 477 447 0 0
CDI 0 23 13 118 605 676 74 0
VCDI 0 0 0 108 820 3538 7881 5307

Date: 2019-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69167 14760 169 669 293 99 5 0
OW 51 521 80 729 371 77 18 0
VODI 0 153 44 425 790 134 27 0
ODI 0 18 7 167 644 315 45 0
CDI 0 2 1 68 556 925 272 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 370 2208 8137 6762
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69167 14416 165 621 396 85 0 0
OW 51 541 55 484 341 121 3 0
VODI 0 410 44 575 663 219 36 0
ODI 0 71 27 197 533 313 99 0
CDI 0 16 10 132 495 696 213 0
VCDI 0 0 0 70 596 2324 8153 6762

Date: 2019-03-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69306 14662 172 795 336 102 4 0
OW 51 621 84 662 353 43 7 0
VODI 0 189 36 611 762 127 13 0
ODI 0 45 12 269 686 240 24 0
CDI 0 3 5 83 797 733 224 0
VCDI 0 0 0 59 563 2291 8511 5619
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69306 14110 144 693 441 36 0 0
OW 51 654 51 368 282 76 0 0
VODI 0 567 61 721 564 148 8 0
ODI 0 128 29 363 553 215 38 0
CDI 0 54 18 181 782 470 234 0
VCDI 0 7 6 153 875 2591 8503 5619


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