Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-03-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-03-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 67805 15088 189 901 564 145 19 0
OW 52 379 47 451 376 140 39 0
VODI 0 199 34 367 649 217 73 0
ODI 0 74 17 173 696 394 123 0
CDI 0 31 16 88 613 953 381 11
VCDI 0 3 4 63 517 3208 20636 71313
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 68011 15121 172 886 576 171 47 0
OW 52 581 65 404 363 130 39 0
VODI 0 365 49 552 609 208 58 0
ODI 0 166 30 218 625 359 76 0
CDI 0 57 15 164 570 734 202 58
VCDI 0 0 0 51 705 4354 23623 66582
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 68129 15184 201 1009 517 151 0 0
OW 52 716 80 501 412 118 2 0
VODI 0 370 46 485 647 262 13 0
ODI 0 65 8 154 588 435 42 0
CDI 0 0 1 80 516 1082 270 56
VCDI 0 0 0 4 600 4729 24144 65379
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 69007 14200 155 787 445 109 2 0
OW 57 768 62 451 493 105 5 0
VODI 0 433 64 549 813 211 34 0
ODI 0 40 8 153 652 438 49 0
CDI 0 1 2 71 562 1174 229 103
VCDI 0 0 0 13 454 4688 25265 64396
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 69007 14285 160 865 470 111 4 0
OW 57 683 71 482 623 108 6 0
VODI 0 444 51 485 736 243 31 0
ODI 0 29 7 115 626 541 60 0
CDI 0 1 2 62 517 1053 226 109
VCDI 0 0 0 15 447 4669 25257 64390

Date: 2019-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 69622 13947 145 660 389 85 2 0
OW 78 1104 76 543 451 95 11 0
VODI 2 399 66 448 622 201 16 0
ODI 0 33 17 276 628 426 33 0
CDI 0 13 7 122 661 957 163 104
VCDI 0 0 0 78 839 5744 27252 60733
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 69611 14182 155 702 428 87 1 0
OW 89 828 76 527 428 100 10 0
VODI 2 444 61 459 648 239 18 0
ODI 0 29 11 245 576 465 42 0
CDI 0 13 8 127 692 886 186 91
VCDI 0 0 0 67 818 5731 27220 60746

Date: 2019-03-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 70022 14216 150 547 295 47 0 0
OW 51 736 85 694 356 62 0 0
VODI 0 201 66 815 883 156 0 0
ODI 0 22 8 196 1048 430 9 0
CDI 0 1 3 119 981 1475 99 50
VCDI 0 0 0 43 987 7060 26732 58403
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 70022 13934 162 662 427 62 0 0
OW 51 792 69 625 493 67 0 0
VODI 0 339 49 493 582 215 0 0
ODI 0 81 16 289 613 513 10 0
CDI 0 30 16 164 904 1001 117 30
VCDI 0 0 0 181 1531 7372 26713 58423

Date: 2019-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 69167 14822 175 702 299 100 5 0
OW 51 540 83 800 441 115 18 0
VODI 0 169 47 502 984 165 27 0
ODI 0 26 9 192 879 395 46 0
CDI 0 2 2 111 824 1327 397 31
VCDI 0 0 0 61 735 5240 26531 61028
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 69167 14464 169 638 397 86 0 0
OW 51 555 57 512 384 153 3 0
VODI 0 426 46 632 798 250 36 0
ODI 0 84 30 233 665 364 102 0
CDI 0 28 12 172 726 913 328 32
VCDI 0 2 2 181 1192 5576 26555 61027

Date: 2019-03-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 69306 14717 176 820 340 102 4 0
OW 51 645 87 735 433 102 8 0
VODI 0 201 38 686 959 179 14 0
ODI 0 52 13 304 902 376 42 8
CDI 0 3 7 112 1155 1144 389 130
VCDI 0 0 0 75 902 5701 29871 56259
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 69306 14151 147 709 456 49 0 0
OW 51 667 52 384 335 112 0 0
VODI 0 583 62 791 678 196 9 0
ODI 0 142 31 397 702 310 42 0
CDI 0 60 20 236 988 747 368 51
VCDI 0 15 9 215 1532 6190 29909 56346


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