Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-03-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70245 14137 161 725 362 51 0 0
OW 52 638 65 403 391 89 0 0
VODI 0 272 53 539 570 198 3 0
ODI 0 66 18 271 614 383 32 0
CDI 0 24 4 128 741 790 279 40
VCDI 0 19 9 183 1612 6279 23125 63477
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69920 13912 167 720 626 103 0 0
OW 52 556 42 351 390 166 1 0
VODI 0 276 41 362 586 398 23 0
ODI 0 75 23 247 488 535 85 0
CDI 0 17 7 143 604 1077 323 75
VCDI 0 0 1 129 783 4844 22935 65965
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69137 14674 184 790 378 92 9 0
OW 52 451 73 569 287 92 17 0
VODI 0 138 47 588 784 186 36 0
ODI 0 32 3 185 854 395 43 0
CDI 0 4 2 90 736 1425 339 46
VCDI 0 3 0 61 608 3999 19833 69806
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-03-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69182 14681 193 779 344 60 25 0
OW 52 441 62 543 279 99 29 0
VODI 0 119 40 469 724 197 59 0
ODI 0 34 7 186 809 419 66 0
CDI 0 19 6 93 764 1031 308 18
VCDI 0 37 10 118 958 4870 17269 71649
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69182 14713 201 800 357 64 31 0
OW 52 409 51 516 298 93 25 0
VODI 0 119 42 450 655 203 61 0
ODI 0 35 7 197 734 419 55 0
CDI 0 15 7 109 800 879 364 20
VCDI 0 40 10 116 1034 5018 17220 71647

Date: 2019-03-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68735 14640 195 875 492 135 20 0
OW 52 441 51 417 324 95 28 0
VODI 0 138 41 414 613 217 53 0
ODI 0 27 8 205 674 439 70 0
CDI 0 21 1 94 790 991 212 18
VCDI 0 76 15 147 1179 4971 16827 72307
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68735 14684 199 912 500 140 21 0
OW 52 391 50 395 339 89 26 0
VODI 0 145 35 386 541 204 57 0
ODI 0 26 10 190 636 401 65 0
CDI 0 20 2 121 789 954 241 19
VCDI 0 77 15 148 1267 5060 16800 72306

Date: 2019-03-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67874 15077 186 736 555 167 20 0
OW 61 349 81 544 278 129 27 0
VODI 0 83 34 418 813 207 62 0
ODI 0 31 9 144 957 358 85 0
CDI 0 6 2 45 873 1490 357 45
VCDI 0 0 0 16 305 3869 18149 72606
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67882 14976 195 824 694 254 35 0
OW 53 367 56 308 308 161 49 0
VODI 0 130 34 407 449 272 101 0
ODI 0 33 17 167 642 414 103 0
CDI 0 20 1 92 884 891 375 24
VCDI 0 20 9 105 804 4228 18037 72627

Date: 2019-03-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67815 15140 193 853 614 158 24 0
OW 52 361 56 472 311 127 48 0
VODI 0 151 48 430 627 227 76 0
ODI 0 32 12 164 715 363 109 0
CDI 0 7 0 70 671 990 309 140
VCDI 0 0 0 28 482 3453 17041 74679
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67814 14892 179 812 711 220 81 0
OW 53 457 45 254 243 170 61 0
VODI 0 240 48 406 346 286 117 0
ODI 0 70 25 303 490 339 131 23
CDI 0 32 12 185 827 702 390 284
VCDI 0 0 0 57 803 3601 16827 74512

Date: 2019-03-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67805 15088 189 901 564 145 19 0
OW 52 379 47 451 376 140 39 0
VODI 0 199 34 367 649 217 73 0
ODI 0 74 17 173 696 394 123 0
CDI 0 31 16 88 613 953 381 11
VCDI 0 3 4 63 517 3208 20636 71313
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67804 14873 174 815 706 236 42 0
OW 53 437 48 267 243 186 58 0
VODI 0 264 31 394 370 267 144 0
ODI 0 132 14 260 507 364 202 0
CDI 0 57 33 184 891 796 484 93
VCDI 0 11 7 123 698 3208 20341 71231


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