Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-02-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-02-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69095 15251 205 867 372 85 2 0
OW 52 377 66 384 317 83 4 0
VODI 0 167 32 344 620 168 12 0
ODI 0 43 22 162 556 430 32 0
CDI 0 16 7 115 637 899 148 19
VCDI 0 0 1 12 863 5040 18878 70665
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-02-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69628 14986 187 779 365 50 2 0
OW 52 493 50 289 394 79 0 0
VODI 0 262 48 313 533 241 10 0
ODI 0 53 20 234 516 378 30 0
CDI 0 34 2 138 599 914 106 66
VCDI 0 13 2 69 757 5121 23146 66089
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-02-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70520 14211 167 628 247 47 0 0
OW 52 516 80 455 273 63 2 0
VODI 0 138 47 448 660 171 16 0
ODI 0 27 6 189 601 377 28 4
CDI 0 1 4 94 672 943 165 93
VCDI 0 0 0 25 708 6228 23847 64295
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70290 14397 163 675 343 56 0 0
OW 52 536 74 417 343 114 0 0
VODI 0 200 45 517 580 200 4 0
ODI 0 49 17 224 599 367 30 0
CDI 0 14 3 118 691 830 268 57
VCDI 0 2 4 91 1348 6988 22966 63376
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70290 14470 170 726 362 59 0 0
OW 52 493 67 383 351 105 0 0
VODI 0 184 50 515 567 231 4 0
ODI 0 36 11 235 611 379 39 0
CDI 0 13 5 95 694 775 320 59
VCDI 0 2 3 88 1319 7006 22905 63374

Date: 2019-03-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70080 13996 168 710 501 70 0 0
OW 52 625 59 354 418 121 0 0
VODI 0 267 48 463 588 263 22 0
ODI 0 70 21 274 609 424 51 1
CDI 0 11 7 135 803 889 263 71
VCDI 0 6 2 150 1102 5380 23207 64767
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70080 14070 169 743 540 69 0 0
OW 52 561 59 333 414 144 3 0
VODI 0 275 48 482 567 249 27 0
ODI 0 56 21 251 661 426 55 1
CDI 0 7 5 123 718 925 285 66
VCDI 0 6 3 154 1121 5334 23173 64772

Date: 2019-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69908 13982 167 618 566 86 0 0
OW 52 484 67 488 294 162 2 0
VODI 0 144 40 595 730 294 20 0
ODI 0 35 3 133 932 488 49 0
CDI 0 3 1 83 608 1489 368 63
VCDI 0 0 0 27 447 4192 19477 69951
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69908 13839 172 688 711 146 3 0
OW 52 481 38 421 342 198 3 0
VODI 0 250 46 412 572 377 21 0
ODI 0 63 19 223 574 481 67 0
CDI 0 15 3 113 647 1094 395 82
VCDI 0 0 0 87 731 4415 19427 69932

Date: 2019-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69100 14698 182 790 333 72 10 0
OW 52 468 72 583 286 94 20 0
VODI 0 139 51 542 756 178 27 0
ODI 0 33 6 203 853 391 42 0
CDI 0 18 3 83 802 1136 229 41
VCDI 0 8 5 97 731 4286 18378 71250
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69100 14525 198 872 465 135 22 0
OW 52 493 36 485 426 115 20 0
VODI 0 249 49 441 647 297 40 0
ODI 0 68 28 254 560 462 76 0
CDI 0 19 3 142 775 949 253 40
VCDI 0 10 5 104 888 4199 18295 71251

Date: 2019-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69010 14596 213 829 410 106 23 0
OW 52 455 52 459 281 82 35 0
VODI 0 140 43 391 694 198 57 0
ODI 0 33 5 196 757 397 58 0
CDI 0 15 4 107 841 1089 218 52
VCDI 0 79 9 138 1136 4998 16456 72334
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69010 14567 221 910 534 133 46 0
OW 52 374 38 318 347 90 43 0
VODI 0 229 40 357 648 287 71 0
ODI 0 46 13 240 597 556 99 0
CDI 0 23 5 131 789 922 261 71
VCDI 0 79 9 164 1204 4882 16327 72315


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